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Prediction markets for AI Monitoring

Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?

Jan 17, 3:55 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54%chance

38

OptionVotes

NO

YES

74

66

Which country or union will be the first to open a national agency with the goal of regulating or monitoring AI?

Mar 18, 5:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26756

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

28.53%chance

262939

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

962

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

67.77%chance

10360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

963

Will there be an AI-music-generation web UI with at least 5000 stars on GitHub by the end of 2024?

Mar 11, 8:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.11%chance

10162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

933

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.2%chance

14193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

962

Will the U.S. Congress pass, a bill by January 10, 2025 a major bill which regulates AI.

Aug 12, 12:00 AMJan 12, 4:59 AM

13.68%chance

273324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

789

Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030?

Sep 25, 12:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5%chance

221772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1503

932

Will AI writers replace all jobs for human writers by the end of 2025?

Jan 14, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.5%chance

306121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3268

837

Longtermist Policymakers create mass-surveillance civilisational risk monitoring programme by 1st Jan 2028

Aug 11, 11:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.31%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?

Feb 4, 11:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.21%chance

9170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

146

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will we see 1k deaths or $200B in economic damage caused by AI malfunction?

Mar 13, 6:48 AMJan 2, 11:00 AM

26.53%chance

4248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

131

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