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AI Chat News
Prediction markets for AI Chat
Prediction markets for AI Chat
Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027
Feb 2, 3:09 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
71.62%
chance
128
7952
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1879
1457
Will there be another blatant demonstration of AI risks, comparable to Bing Chat, by 2024?
Sep 30, 11:58 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
33.19%
chance
16
1023
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1123
927
AI voice chat servers before 2026?
May 13, 11:31 AM
Mar 8, 10:59 PM
82.04%
chance
16
291
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1140
941
Will Bing Chat be the breakthrough for AI safety research?
Feb 20, 7:45 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
9.12%
chance
13
963
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1393
905
Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?
Jan 25, 9:12 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
31.21%
chance
13
518
Option
Votes
YES
NO
189
125
Will selling your own chat history for AI training be possible before 2030?
May 15, 12:21 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
45.4%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
210
191
Why is Bing Chat AI (Prometheus) less aligned than ChatGPT?
Feb 15, 2:16 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
29
2721
Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2024?
Jun 22, 6:38 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
17.45%
chance
5
120
Option
Votes
YES
NO
218
46
Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2025?
Jun 22, 6:38 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
18.84%
chance
4
125
Option
Votes
YES
NO
208
48
When will we be able to chat with an AI convincingly impersonating a famous historical or living person?
Feb 5, 10:08 PM
Jan 2, 10:59 PM
24
886
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
May 1, 9:58 AM
Dec 31, 1:29 PM
38.36%
chance
610
183325
Option
Votes
YES
NO
17615
10561
What LLM API will work unmodified until the end of 2025?
Mar 8, 2:33 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
6
115
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Authors
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26 days
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17
5 months
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