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Prediction markets for AI Channels

Will Rational animations use AI voice narration in at least one of the videos on the channel before 2024 end?

Jul 29, 4:07 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

33.41%chance

17278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

969

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.49%chance

15236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

953

By 2030, will AI tech be powerful enough to automate a YouTube channel?

Mar 25, 8:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.97%chance

171172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1301

947

Will there be an AI "Let's Play" channel by 2030?

Jun 11, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.3%chance

201147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1451

931

When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video?

Mar 7, 1:54 PMMar 14, 10:59 PM

161612

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26232

3281

Will Kurzgesagt release a video specifically about the AI Alignment Problem before the end of 2024?

Mar 6, 8:03 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

62.78%chance

20920662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3084

1406

Will 6G use AI in the physical layer before 2030?

Jan 20, 7:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.95%chance

14293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

930

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

24.66%chance

13504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

971

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

63.54%chance

22723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

973

Will MidJourney add support for in-house AI Video Generation in 2024?

Dec 27, 8:27 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

79.53%chance

14736

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

929

Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?

Feb 19, 9:03 AMFeb 19, 11:59 PM

48.61%chance

221262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

978

972

Articles

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Otter AI, Google, and Replit Introduce Meeting GenAI, Companion Mode, and Collaborative AI Chat
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17
5 months
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