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Prediction markets for Accused

Will any US Senator be accused of sexual misconduct in 2024?

Jan 22, 8:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.7%chance

20367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

917

Will arxiv be credibly accused of political censorship in 2023, 2024, or 2025?

Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.75%chance

10192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

967

Will a top-100 chess player accuse another top-100 player of cheating at chess using a brain chip by EOY 2034 ?

Apr 20, 6:12 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

33.4%chance

10413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

910

Will there be an accusation of a large language model being used for disinformation during the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Jan 20, 1:46 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

80.1%chance

13326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

966

Will Canada accuse India of involvement in the killing of Sukhdool Singh?

Sep 21, 5:51 AMSep 21, 3:59 PM

28.69%chance

16703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1146

876

If Donald Trump take a stand in court (in any of his cases), will he be (formally) accused of perjury?

Sep 18, 7:34 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.41%chance

151807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

822

Will a major social media platform be accused of influencing the 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome?

Jan 17, 6:35 AMFeb 6, 7:59 AM

58.06%chance

14180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

993

Will the UK government publicly accuse India of assassinating Avtar Singh Khanda?

Sep 18, 10:49 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

15.38%chance

16598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

949

Will Kramnik directly accuse someone of cheating in chess in 2024?

Mar 7, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

57%chance

162773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

255

Will Ron DeSantis be accused of sexual assault before the 2024 Election?

Dec 2, 9:24 AMNov 5, 11:59 PM

16.41%chance

566327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2062

581

Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?

Nov 21, 3:40 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.36%chance

11771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

949

Will the US accuse the PRC of putting Taiwanese people into Concentration Camps any time through 2028?

Sep 11, 1:10 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

26.45%chance

6155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

92

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