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Prediction markets for Accessibility

By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?

May 21, 6:12 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

53.12%chance

496378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

939

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.35%chance

592616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

889

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Achieve Ballot Access in All 50 States for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Dec 16, 4:29 PMNov 5, 4:59 AM

65.24%chance

489571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1524

364

Will OpenAI give early access to GPT-5 to any of these alignment organizations? (2024)

Mar 26, 2:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.84%chance

553869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

979

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

48.04%chance

121390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

961

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

42.3%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

856

Will "The Wayward Realms" be released as Early Access by EOY 2024?

Jun 6, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.67%chance

3295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

777

There will be no restrictions on Chinese citizens ability to access education or healthcare in any city with more than 10 million people based on rural Hukou by the end of 2025

Sep 8, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.88%chance

14518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

958

Will Twitter/X restrict access in Europe as a result of the DSA investigation?

Dec 18, 8:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.31%chance

17262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

934

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

74.56%chance

15547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

932

Will I have API access to gpt-4o image gen by August 1 2024

Jun 1, 6:24 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

70.22%chance

13550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1535

651

Will Duolingo be provided access to using GPT-5 before GPT-5 is released to the general public?

Mar 20, 3:28 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

41.99%chance

371045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

869

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Latest stories

State Dept Requires DEI Support for Promotions, Introduces 'Office of Access and Engagement'
Authors
5
3 months
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