Access Controller News

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

7416

3786

Will any Manifold user withdraw at least $1000 from Manifold "prize points" in 2024?

Apr 24, 4:07 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59%chance

798901

OptionVotes

YES

2574

2232

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.3%chance

16603

OptionVotes

YES

998

984

Will a consumer-grade autonomous AI be released by an established tech firm by the end of 2024?

Sep 14, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.11%chance

10159

OptionVotes

YES

995

Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.82%chance

20378

OptionVotes

YES

1155

912

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.3%chance

271192

OptionVotes

YES

1074

957

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.43%chance

30772

OptionVotes

YES

1099

909

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

Apr 18, 1:49 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

84.25%chance

363787

OptionVotes

YES

1044

922

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

Jan 1, 1:59 AMDec 24, 5:01 AM

44.05%chance

221866

OptionVotes

YES

982

959

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

9430

Will YouTube allow me to configure a personal agent to represent my interests as I use the site by mid 2025

Nov 30, 4:14 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.32%chance

8171

OptionVotes

YES

316

141

Will manifold offer private business subscription services by Dec 31, 2024.

Oct 23, 3:31 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

19.93%chance

5536

OptionVotes

YES

164

107

Latest stories

Game Restocks PS5 Disc Consoles, Saves £90 with £4.99 Delivery Charge; New Reviews of PlayStation Portal, Access Controller, and Sony PlayStation 5 Slim
Authors
4
7 months
Tech

Access Controller News

Prediction markets for Access Controller

Prediction markets for Access Controller

Prediction markets for Access Controller

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will any Manifold user withdraw at least $1000 from Manifold "prize points" in 2024?

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Will a consumer-grade autonomous AI be released by an established tech firm by the end of 2024?

Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Will YouTube allow me to configure a personal agent to represent my interests as I use the site by mid 2025

Will manifold offer private business subscription services by Dec 31, 2024.

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Access Controller

Prediction markets for Access Controller

Prediction markets for Access Controller

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will any Manifold user withdraw at least $1000 from Manifold "prize points" in 2024?

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Will a consumer-grade autonomous AI be released by an established tech firm by the end of 2024?

Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?