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Prediction markets for Accelerated Computing

Will any TOP500 computer use CPUs or accelerators built off of the RISC-V ISA in 2028?

May 6, 12:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48%chance

3116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

83

Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?

Jan 8, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.44%chance

435840

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2463

736

Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030?

Dec 16, 7:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.87%chance

23746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

974

Will room-temperature superconductors (such as LK-99) achieve commercial adoption by 2028?

Aug 1, 7:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.52%chance

283557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2672

720

Will WebGPU become an out-of-the-box protocol provided by mainline PC graphics drivers by 2025?

Aug 18, 11:24 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5.45%chance

192901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1837

675

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2034?

May 3, 10:33 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

8.34%chance

6235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332

30

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2032?

Mar 9, 11:53 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

16.31%chance

6397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

364

149

How many of these jobs will have a 15% or more drop in employment plausibly attributable to AI by 2031?

Feb 12, 3:22 PMJan 1, 3:22 PM

34.44%chance

876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

184

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2033?

Mar 12, 11:05 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.58%chance

4180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

94

When will Nvidia's GH200 "Grace Hopper" superchip be released.

Aug 7, 12:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

51542

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2031?

Mar 4, 10:42 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

14.92%chance

5160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

118

Will I be convinced that gen-AI will create tailwinds that overflow to non-gen AI aspects of hyperscalers’ by June 2025?

Nov 29, 4:43 AMJul 1, 2:59 AM

45.32%chance

218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

281

247

Articles

Latest stories

Nvidia to Host GTC 2024 Conference with Jensen Huang on Accelerated Computing and Generative AI from March 18th-21st
Authors
7
5 months
AI
Tech

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