4X News

Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033?

Feb 28, 9:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54.76%chance

17606

OptionVotes

YES

1005

972

Will iPhone sales drop below 100 billion USD by 2040? (~4x decrease)

Dec 18, 3:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

112108

OptionVotes

YES

1064

923

Will Biden 4x taxes for the average American taxpayer?

Jun 28, 2:16 AMJul 31, 2:29 PM

3.75%chance

6510

OptionVotes

YES

507

Will Sam Altman get > 4x more death threats in 2024 than 2023?

Feb 22, 7:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.07%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

120

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?

Nov 7, 9:09 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM

7284

In their rookie (W)NBA Seasons, who will record the most points between Cailin Clark and Bronny James?

Jul 1, 2:55 AMApr 14, 4:59 AM

Will USA get any medal in Athletics - Men's 4x100m Relay of 2024 Olympics?

Jan 20, 2:14 PMAug 15, 3:59 AM

75.08%chance

792

OptionVotes

YES

253

128

Will USA get any medal in Athletics - Men's 4x400m Relay of 2024 Olympics?

Jan 20, 2:14 PMAug 15, 3:59 AM

64.37%chance

729

OptionVotes

YES

195

153

Will USA get any medal in Athletics - Women's 4x100m Relay of 2024 Olympics?

Jan 20, 2:16 PMAug 15, 3:59 AM

66.14%chance

628

OptionVotes

YES

174

133

Will USA get any medal in Athletics - Women's 4x400m Relay of 2024 Olympics?

Jan 20, 2:17 PMAug 15, 3:59 AM

76.47%chance

666

OptionVotes

YES

209

121

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

56.13%chance

233083

OptionVotes

YES

5152

3916

Conditional on LK-99 being replicated, will American Superconductor Company stock trade above $30?

Aug 2, 4:14 PMJan 3, 2:59 AM

52.95%chance

18912

OptionVotes

YES

1035

959

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4X News

Prediction markets for 4X

Prediction markets for 4X

Prediction markets for 4X

Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033?

Will iPhone sales drop below 100 billion USD by 2040? (~4x decrease)

Will Biden 4x taxes for the average American taxpayer?

Will Sam Altman get > 4x more death threats in 2024 than 2023?

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?

In their rookie (W)NBA Seasons, who will record the most points between Cailin Clark and Bronny James?

Will USA get any medal in Athletics - Men's 4x100m Relay of 2024 Olympics?

Will USA get any medal in Athletics - Men's 4x400m Relay of 2024 Olympics?

Will USA get any medal in Athletics - Women's 4x100m Relay of 2024 Olympics?

Will USA get any medal in Athletics - Women's 4x400m Relay of 2024 Olympics?

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

Conditional on LK-99 being replicated, will American Superconductor Company stock trade above $30?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for 4X

Prediction markets for 4X

Prediction markets for 4X

Will the S&P500 be greater than 4x its Jan 1, 2023 price on Jan 1, 2033?

Will iPhone sales drop below 100 billion USD by 2040? (~4x decrease)

Will Biden 4x taxes for the average American taxpayer?

Will Sam Altman get > 4x more death threats in 2024 than 2023?

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?

In their rookie (W)NBA Seasons, who will record the most points between Cailin Clark and Bronny James?

Will USA get any medal in Athletics - Men's 4x100m Relay of 2024 Olympics?