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Prediction markets for 26

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

56.13%chance

233083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5152

3916

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

85.05%chance

949724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2225

110

Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?

Jan 27, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.28%chance

454720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1749

1043

Did the explosive May 26 2024 Rafah strike by Israel hit a Palestinian weapons cache?

May 31, 4:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.59%chance

302187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

740

Will Leonardo DiCaprio have a girlfriend over 26 by 2030

Feb 21, 6:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.75%chance

291203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

904

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs

May 16, 6:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.29%chance

12699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1283

906

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs

May 16, 7:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88.62%chance

10508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

961

Will the world human population be <6 Billion on December 26, 2029?

Sep 5, 8:47 AMDec 25, 6:29 PM

7.15%chance

191106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1231

955

How much will Google Trends interest in AI consciousness change from Jan '24 to Jan '26?

Jan 28, 1:53 AMJan 25, 7:59 AM

6122

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2025?

Jun 1, 6:48 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.28%chance

5112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

88

NFL Week 17 (Dec 26 2024): Will the Chicago Bears (home) beat the Seattle Seahawks (away)?

May 16, 4:44 AMDec 29, 1:15 AM

57.56%chance

217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

Paris 2024 Olympic Games are canceled at any point on or before the Opening Ceremony (July 26).

Jun 14, 8:33 AMJul 27, 9:59 PM

12.4%chance

6224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

38

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