24 Hour Market News

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

Oct 6, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

538822

OptionVotes

YES

985

787

If Prigozhin dies within 24 hours of the last bet on this market, it resolves yes

Jun 26, 6:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.96%chance

151747

OptionVotes

YES

1758

808

Will Manifold stop advertising markets to users who have already traded on the market in the last 24 hours, by 2025?

Jan 2, 4:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

92.37%chance

5250

OptionVotes

YES

249

Will any answer that trades above 80% for at least 24 consecutive hours in the PINK market resolve NO?

Feb 5, 6:27 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

64.45%chance

6193

OptionVotes

YES

155

142

Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?

Feb 4, 9:30 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

459708

Daily coinflip

Jul 1, 6:57 AMJul 3, 3:59 AM

51.41%chance

8513204

OptionVotes

YES

1029

972

Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?

Feb 10, 12:30 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

50.09%chance

411571

OptionVotes

YES

1093

881

Will Bitcoin reach $5k before it reaches $500k?

Jan 12, 3:43 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

51.55%chance

203899

OptionVotes

YES

1055

916

Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?

Mar 25, 3:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.13%chance

703234

OptionVotes

YES

2985

1667

Will Bitcoin reach $10k before it reaches $100k?

Jun 17, 4:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18%chance

10527543

OptionVotes

YES

2625

438

Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)?

Jun 28, 10:29 AMJul 28, 8:00 PM

26450544

Will we get fusion drives before 2040?

Jun 2, 5:19 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

9.72%chance

132543

OptionVotes

YES

3048

328

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24 Hour Market News

Prediction markets for 24 Hour Market

Prediction markets for 24 Hour Market

Prediction markets for 24 Hour Market

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

If Prigozhin dies within 24 hours of the last bet on this market, it resolves yes

Will Manifold stop advertising markets to users who have already traded on the market in the last 24 hours, by 2025?

Will any answer that trades above 80% for at least 24 consecutive hours in the PINK market resolve NO?

Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?

Daily coinflip

Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?

Will Bitcoin reach $5k before it reaches $500k?

Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?

Will Bitcoin reach $10k before it reaches $100k?

Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)?

Will we get fusion drives before 2040?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for 24 Hour Market

Prediction markets for 24 Hour Market

Prediction markets for 24 Hour Market

This market resolves YES once the probability has remained below 1% for 24 hours.

If Prigozhin dies within 24 hours of the last bet on this market, it resolves yes

Will Manifold stop advertising markets to users who have already traded on the market in the last 24 hours, by 2025?

Will any answer that trades above 80% for at least 24 consecutive hours in the PINK market resolve NO?

Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?

Daily coinflip

Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?