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Prediction markets for 2023

Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?

Oct 13, 5:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.77%chance

1718349160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14802

6270

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

2913529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12221

9025

Will the four year Bitcoin bull / bear market cycle continue for the 2023-2026 cycle?

Dec 11, 6:14 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.01%chance

9714588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9068

Is the US government currently (2023) hiding AI capabilities beyond the current state of the art? (Resolves 2040)

Nov 29, 11:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.03%chance

8293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

477

139

What will be the log change in bitcoin's market share among all currencies between 2023 and 2100? (M3000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:50 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

61.15%chance

71961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4076

2783

9) Some of the hype and herd mentality behavior that shifted from crypto to AI in 2023 will shift back to crypto in 2024

Dec 25, 1:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74.95%chance

474111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

862

🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024?

Dec 28, 11:58 PMDec 31, 5:00 PM

38.75%chance

363247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3305

2715

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

43.19%chance

8063454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

461

Will 2024 be even hotter than 2023? 🥵

Jan 10, 8:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.56%chance

38653577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1978

1194

[Bins up to 256,000] Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas war - Palestinian side

Oct 11, 5:55 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

411171904

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.08%chance

685564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2707

1784

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.45%chance

2217148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

956

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