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Prediction markets for 18

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.08%chance

685564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2707

1784

Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months?

Mar 29, 6:43 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

31.98%chance

593432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1926

1123

Will users under 18 years old be allowed to use Manifold throughout 2024?

Apr 23, 1:55 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

27.34%chance

424317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1901

946

Conditional on manifold.love explicitly allowing people <18 to participate, will it get very bad PR within 3 months?

Nov 5, 6:38 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.6%chance

292429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1491

539

Will Civilization 7 have more or less than 18 playable civilizations at release?

Sep 21, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74.93%chance

15407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

973

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32.37%chance

14528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

943

In 2030, will more than 30 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ecstasy (MDMA/molly) in their lifetimes?

Feb 1, 6:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

12578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

972

[Kalshi] Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by September 18, 2024?

Oct 24, 11:31 PMSep 26, 2:00 PM

43.51%chance

133489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

823

Will the iPhone 18 include a model with no charging port?

Feb 2, 2:37 AMAug 1, 2:59 AM

16.94%chance

282379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1257

915

Will iOS 18 feature AI provided by either Anthropic or Google?

Mar 25, 12:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.32%chance

281461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1929

713

Will approximately 80% of Turnitin's engineering workforce be eliminated by October 18, 2024 due to generative AI?

Feb 3, 4:48 PMOct 19, 4:59 AM

17.23%chance

11118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

960

Will there be an 18-game regular season by the start of the 2028 NFL season?

Mar 4, 2:11 AMSep 11, 3:59 AM

63.42%chance

23757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

907

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