12 News

Will a quantum computer break AES256 encryption in the next 12 month?

Nov 2, 7:35 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

3.26%chance

501047290

OptionVotes

YES

1433

934

Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050?

Mar 25, 11:26 PMMar 25, 11:59 PM

14.43%chance

312869

OptionVotes

YES

1376

873

Will the Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Study by the LEVF succeed in increasing mouse lifespan 12 months?

Jan 9, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.16%chance

272070

OptionVotes

YES

1006

981

Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.

Dec 8, 8:11 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

20.39%chance

304504

OptionVotes

YES

1276

883

Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

Jan 8, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.29%chance

375903

OptionVotes

YES

1804

575

Will Joel Haver make 12 films in 12 months?

Jun 27, 7:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.25%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

1067

937

In the next 12 months will a Hollywood grade production make use of generative AI for visual effects?

Oct 22, 7:31 PMOct 30, 3:59 AM

71.24%chance

11129

OptionVotes

YES

1036

978

Will a Hollywood-grade production make use of generative AI for visual effects in the next 12 months?

Oct 13, 8:36 PMOct 2, 3:59 AM

70.32%chance

15169

OptionVotes

YES

1050

972

Will Gemini exceed the performance of GPT-4 on the 2022 AMC 10 and AMC 12 exams?

Jul 30, 1:02 AMDec 30, 4:59 AM

71.9%chance

12311

OptionVotes

YES

1049

969

When will be the first year that GDP doubles (i.e., a period of 12 months in which there is 100% growth of global GDP)?

Aug 13, 5:03 PMAug 13, 9:59 PM

53%chance

13322

OptionVotes

YES

1036

956

Will a large AI company (e.g. OpenAI) acquire an inference-focused AI chip compnay in the next 12 months?

Oct 13, 8:50 PMOct 2, 3:59 AM

62.56%chance

21635

OptionVotes

YES

1023

941

Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" be hacked within 12 months of its release date?

Feb 3, 2:45 PMFeb 3, 11:59 PM

54.42%chance

22823

OptionVotes

YES

1106

884

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12 News

Prediction markets for 12

Prediction markets for 12

Prediction markets for 12

Will a quantum computer break AES256 encryption in the next 12 month?

Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050?

Will the Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Study by the LEVF succeed in increasing mouse lifespan 12 months?

Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.

Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

Will Joel Haver make 12 films in 12 months?

In the next 12 months will a Hollywood grade production make use of generative AI for visual effects?

Will a Hollywood-grade production make use of generative AI for visual effects in the next 12 months?

Will Gemini exceed the performance of GPT-4 on the 2022 AMC 10 and AMC 12 exams?

When will be the first year that GDP doubles (i.e., a period of 12 months in which there is 100% growth of global GDP)?

Will a large AI company (e.g. OpenAI) acquire an inference-focused AI chip compnay in the next 12 months?

Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" be hacked within 12 months of its release date?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for 12

Prediction markets for 12

Prediction markets for 12

Will a quantum computer break AES256 encryption in the next 12 month?

Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050?

Will the Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Study by the LEVF succeed in increasing mouse lifespan 12 months?

Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.

Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

Will Joel Haver make 12 films in 12 months?

In the next 12 months will a Hollywood grade production make use of generative AI for visual effects?