Worli News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85%chance

4203087330

OptionVotes

YES

3261

954

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

27.51%chance

11048387

OptionVotes

YES

1623

616

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27%chance

248139153

OptionVotes

YES

3637

1335

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

2913529

OptionVotes

YES

12221

9025

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

12%chance

130320989

OptionVotes

YES

3085

2305

Worldcoin scales up to at least 10M World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024?

Mar 16, 5:09 PMAug 16, 4:59 AM

21.76%chance

183540

OptionVotes

YES

15029

10501

Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?

Feb 13, 8:04 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

74.36%chance

38065090

OptionVotes

YES

11262

7945

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.58%chance

25766005

OptionVotes

YES

1339

737

Will BTE's secret plan work?

Oct 23, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.96%chance

107109614

OptionVotes

YES

1554

888

Will the ability of F-1 international students to work in the US be severely curtailed before July 2025?

Jun 16, 7:56 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

41.5%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

5090

3695

Will GiveWell fund Eyeglasses to improve workers' manual dexterity by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.85%chance

286395

OptionVotes

YES

7403

3293

Does the Luddite Extreme Orthorexia (LEO) diet work?

Dec 22, 12:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.07%chance

4132

OptionVotes

YES

204

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Worli News

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Worldcoin scales up to at least 10M World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024?

Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Will BTE's secret plan work?

Will the ability of F-1 international students to work in the US be severely curtailed before July 2025?

Will GiveWell fund Eyeglasses to improve workers' manual dexterity by 1st January 2027?

Does the Luddite Extreme Orthorexia (LEO) diet work?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Prediction markets for Worli

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Worldcoin scales up to at least 10M World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024?

Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Will BTE's secret plan work?

Will the ability of F-1 international students to work in the US be severely curtailed before July 2025?