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Prediction markets for Wentworth

By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.

Dec 2, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42%chance

291594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

974

Will John Wentworth's Gears of Aging series hold up in 2033?

Feb 25, 8:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.7%chance

11588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

900

Will "A stylized dialogue on John Wentworth's claim..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Apr 9, 1:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

25.71%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

82

Australian election: Which teals will be re-elected?

May 10, 4:43 AMMay 31, 1:59 PM

130

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

48.74%chance

162332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1632

839

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM

34.55%chance

18981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

942

Will Tassilo Think Singular Learning Theory Isn’t Useful for Alignment by the End of 2024?

Aug 15, 8:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

44.47%chance

131086

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

947

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

30.63%chance

181787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

919

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

27%chance

286189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1543

647

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

47.45%chance

211644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

757

Will Superalignment succeed, according to a majority of Eliezer, Nate, Paul, John, David.

Oct 28, 5:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.57%chance

71249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

44

Will "A rough and incomplete review of some of John..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Mar 12, 7:32 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

24.33%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

76

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