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Prediction markets for Value Area

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.03%chance

144070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5697

3703

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.32%chance

271336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

925

Will the 500 euro note be reissued by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.26%chance

24397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

903

Will the Alphabet and Microsoft market cap differ by at least a factor of 3 in 2030?

Feb 17, 3:00 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.97%chance

281031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

844

10) U.S. court rule that generative AI models trained on the internet represent a violation of copyright. [Abbreviated]

Dec 25, 1:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.75%chance

431772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

767

Is Yitang Zhang's preprint on Landau-Siegel zeros correct?

Dec 22, 3:46 PMJan 1, 3:29 PM

7.66%chance

171846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

683

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

28.69%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

152

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2025?

Nov 25, 12:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.29%chance

6110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

96

When will San Francisco have bad air quality in 2024?

Jun 23, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1100

Will there be "some kind of cap on house prices" in the UK in 2024? [2024 Psychic Predictions]

Jan 20, 11:28 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.28%chance

8571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

521

89

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?

Nov 25, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.17%chance

217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

77

(Mana rewards for improvement suggestions) Will the attempted gentrification of Caerphilly, Wales last until 2025?

Mar 11, 5:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

47.04%chance

423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

152

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