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Prediction markets for US military

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.76%chance

27776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

924

If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030

Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

71.32%chance

874490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2239

2085

Will every non-Trump US president have studied at law school or served in the military until 2040?

Apr 13, 6:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.23%chance

135490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2106

1843

Will a Taiwanese, US, Filipino, Japanese or Vietnamese servicemember die confronting the China's military before 2025?

Dec 17, 11:17 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.34%chance

373991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

812

Will a fully autonomous AI-powered US military drone kill a human being without express human direction before 2025?

Oct 13, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.23%chance

16461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

983

Will US military aid to Ukraine decrease by more than 10% in 2024 compared to 2023?

Aug 5, 9:01 AMJan 15, 11:59 PM

51.67%chance

12277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

986

Will total US military expenditure top its all-time high by 2024?

Mar 6, 5:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.37%chance

18323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

897

By the year 2040, will the US military integrate a bipedal humanoid robot, similar to Boston Dynamics' Atlas, into its arsenal?

Feb 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

69.37%chance

37816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1131

915

In 2024, will at least 100 US military personnel be killed by enemy action in the Middle East?

Jan 29, 3:26 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18%chance

16623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1293

881

Does the US military use covert technology to read the minds of citizens around the world?

Aug 3, 7:44 PMFeb 23, 7:59 AM

10.44%chance

19858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

929

Will the US start using frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine’s military?

Sep 23, 3:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.1%chance

353637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2224

473

What will US military investment in AI be in 2030?

Dec 10, 5:34 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

82.35%chance

9339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

415

383

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