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Prediction markets for Tin

Is Q* the A star pathfinding search combined with Q-learning, as claimed in a "tin hat time" tweet?

Nov 23, 12:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

322164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

918

Will the Michigan Tinnitus Device (Auricle) be released before 2025?

Aug 25, 2:29 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

24.37%chance

211607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3193

1386

Do scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve?

Apr 17, 10:29 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

48.41%chance

321000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

988

Will Tinder still be the top dating app in 2026

Nov 4, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.6%chance

271033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

945

Do scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve?

Apr 18, 5:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

59.12%chance

291179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

893

Will Tinnitus be curable by 2035?

Aug 28, 11:42 PMMay 20, 5:59 AM

46.64%chance

431911

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

775

Will GPT-5 be at least a tiny bit strategic at the "Numbers Game"?

May 9, 9:05 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.99%chance

27572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

958

Does a major dating app (e.g. Tinder/Grindr/etc) require ID age verification by 2030

Dec 12, 5:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

84.21%chance

10270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1114

959

Will an implantable device to treat tinnitus be available anywhere in the world before 2027?

May 17, 8:19 AMMay 25, 9:59 PM

15.64%chance

23802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

958

Will Bedrock Galactica outsell Tinybox in 2024?

Jan 7, 10:50 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

60%chance

423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

97

Will Tina Kotek be re-elected governor of Oregon in 2026?

Oct 14, 9:17 AMNov 5, 7:59 AM

70%chance

586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

100

Will Tinubu win another election to remain President of Nigeria?

Jul 30, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

05

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55

45

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