Time Square News

Fans and Janet Jackson Gather to Mark 15th Anniversary of Michael Jackson's Death at Time Square
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7
6 days
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Will Manifold buy a spot on a billboard in Times Square before 2025?

Jan 3, 11:54 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

10.54%chance

12434

OptionVotes

YES

1185

953

When will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?

Jul 30, 12:14 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4167

How will Isaac King resolve his "What is the largest number?" market?

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4139

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

10098

9894

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

65.15%chance

6515913

OptionVotes

YES

7087

5310

Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?

Jul 2, 5:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.14%chance

181281

OptionVotes

YES

1523

736

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

69.6%chance

755140

OptionVotes

YES

2075

1529

Will I understand a causal decision theorist/frequentist/libertarian free will believer before the end of 2024?

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38.4%chance

10290

OptionVotes

YES

1005

981

Will Manifold's calibration improve in 2024?

Mar 15, 9:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

12169

OptionVotes

YES

1050

957

Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?

Jul 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

65%chance

151904

OptionVotes

YES

1093

932

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

62%chance

14233

OptionVotes

YES

1051

961

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

6.32%chance

49176

OptionVotes

YES

3850

260

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Time Square News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Time Square

Prediction markets for Time Square

Prediction markets for Time Square

Will Manifold buy a spot on a billboard in Times Square before 2025?

When will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?

How will Isaac King resolve his "What is the largest number?" market?

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Will I understand a causal decision theorist/frequentist/libertarian free will believer before the end of 2024?

Will Manifold's calibration improve in 2024?

Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Time Square

Prediction markets for Time Square

Prediction markets for Time Square

Will Manifold buy a spot on a billboard in Times Square before 2025?

When will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?

How will Isaac King resolve his "What is the largest number?" market?

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?