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Prediction markets for The WA

Will the median property price in Perth WA rise in 2024

Jan 27, 3:14 AMJan 26, 3:59 PM

79.42%chance

992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

274

154

Will Clallam County, WA vote for the winning US Presidential Candidate for the 12th consecutive time?

Nov 4, 2:56 AMNov 8, 2:59 PM

56.06%chance

8135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

76

65

Will New York Magazine walk back the $50k in a shoebox article?

Feb 22, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.5%chance

129186341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147382

70460

Will Tesla serve more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

May 22, 12:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.95%chance

4119918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8849

4835

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.5%chance

26327853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10169

9562

Will YouTuber 'Whatifalthist's prediction of a new US civil war be covered by major US news media outlets by July 14?

Mar 21, 11:45 AMJul 15, 4:59 AM

4.64%chance

2655212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

74453

15607

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.69%chance

14410765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10023

9931

Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith?

Mar 20, 8:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.21%chance

191082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13210

12847

Will David Austin Walsh get a tenure track offer?

May 27, 10:51 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

16.08%chance

2414357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15772

9592

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.91%chance

211534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

913

Will the "Possible Meissner effect near room temperature" paper by Hongyang Wang be replicated before the end of 2024?

Jan 3, 4:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.65%chance

12695431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6280

1307

[Metaculus] Before July, will the ICC issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant or Halevi?

May 5, 4:56 PMJul 2, 1:00 PM

1.02%chance

62126836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128363

2207

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