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Sparks News
Prediction markets for Sparks
Prediction markets for Sparks
Will Google Gemini do as well as GPT-4 on Sparks of AGI tasks?
May 12, 2:35 AM
Jun 30, 6:29 PM
75.87%
chance
25
732
Option
Votes
YES
NO
991
990
Which of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true? [Multiple Choice]
Dec 16, 10:40 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
197
18467
White Lotus Season 3 [Mega independent]
Jan 4, 1:26 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
34
33506
Who will win the 2025 WNBA Championship?
May 14, 4:05 PM
Dec 1, 7:59 AM
3
289
Who will win the 2024 WNBA Championship?
May 14, 4:04 PM
Nov 30, 7:59 AM
6
177
Will La Croix sparkling water still be owned by National Beverage Corp at the end of 2028?
Apr 30, 8:32 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
54.61%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
NO
YES
110
91
Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?
Jan 17, 4:24 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
19.46%
chance
70
5493
Option
Votes
YES
NO
6274
6067
Will two people who first meet in person at Manifest 2023 be dating in June 2024?
Sep 21, 7:45 PM
Jul 2, 6:59 AM
85.95%
chance
20
2681
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1805
74
Which number is smaller between 4 (YES) and -10 (NO), according to Mathematicians?
Jun 23, 9:34 PM
Jul 24, 3:59 AM
14.57%
chance
161
29009
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2422
413
Did the explosive May 26 2024 Rafah strike by Israel hit a Palestinian weapons cache?
May 31, 4:32 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
68.2%
chance
30
2076
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1465
683
By 2030 will we have video-to-video where an LLM can continue any video prompt in any way you like?
Jan 3, 1:29 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
76.32%
chance
10
446
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1075
964
Will the iPhone 16 have a charging port?
Feb 16, 8:00 PM
Aug 1, 2:59 AM
93.62%
chance
78
11418
Option
Votes
NO
YES
4371
794
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11
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6
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Authors
15
5 months
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14
5 months
Las Vegas
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