Ont News

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26.92%chance

11636

OptionVotes

YES

989

988

Will Premier Doug Ford win the 44th Ontario General Election?

Sep 3, 1:39 AMJun 6, 3:59 AM

28.73%chance

10284

OptionVotes

YES

1069

961

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.2%chance

14193

OptionVotes

YES

1059

962

are LLMs easy to align because unsupervised learning imbues them with an ontology where human values are easy to express

Aug 29, 2:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.6%chance

12556

OptionVotes

YES

1122

899

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water onto Antarctica to reduce sea levels?

Mar 24, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.48%chance

181134

OptionVotes

YES

1849

831

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

Jan 1, 1:59 AMDec 24, 5:01 AM

44.05%chance

221866

OptionVotes

YES

982

959

will eliezer yudkowsky pour an entire bottle of ketchup onto his head on the live internet before 2030?

Sep 7, 1:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.93%chance

362053

OptionVotes

YES

1699

879

Will we have a reliable way of uploading people's minds onto computers by 2030?

Jul 18, 11:48 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.86%chance

8204

OptionVotes

YES

285

125

Which party will win Ontario's 44th general election?

Mar 19, 11:23 AMJun 5, 3:59 AM

4155

How many of their red state Senate seats will Democrats hold onto in 2024?

Jan 7, 2:29 AMNov 10, 5:59 AM

12838

Will more Emergent Ventures fellows come from Ontario than any administrative division (province/state) by EOY 2024?

Jan 22, 11:13 PMDec 30, 4:59 AM

45.43%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

Will adept.ai (or some other agent AI) be able to create an account and batch-write questions from a .txt file onto manifold.markets by the end of 2025?

Feb 20, 7:32 AMMar 1, 4:59 AM

65.17%chance

498

OptionVotes

YES

148

116

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Ont News

Prediction markets for Ont

Prediction markets for Ont

Prediction markets for Ont

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Will Premier Doug Ford win the 44th Ontario General Election?

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

are LLMs easy to align because unsupervised learning imbues them with an ontology where human values are easy to express

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water onto Antarctica to reduce sea levels?

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

will eliezer yudkowsky pour an entire bottle of ketchup onto his head on the live internet before 2030?

Will we have a reliable way of uploading people's minds onto computers by 2030?

Which party will win Ontario's 44th general election?

How many of their red state Senate seats will Democrats hold onto in 2024?

Will more Emergent Ventures fellows come from Ontario than any administrative division (province/state) by EOY 2024?

Will adept.ai (or some other agent AI) be able to create an account and batch-write questions from a .txt file onto manifold.markets by the end of 2025?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Ont

Prediction markets for Ont

Prediction markets for Ont

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Will Premier Doug Ford win the 44th Ontario General Election?

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

are LLMs easy to align because unsupervised learning imbues them with an ontology where human values are easy to express

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water onto Antarctica to reduce sea levels?

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

will eliezer yudkowsky pour an entire bottle of ketchup onto his head on the live internet before 2030?