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Prediction markets for New Street

Will YouTuber 'Whatifalthist's prediction of a new US civil war be covered by major US news media outlets by July 14?

Mar 21, 11:45 AMJul 15, 4:59 AM

4.64%chance

2755235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

74476

15605

Will there be an act of terrorism using drones in Paris during the Olympics between July 24 - August 11?

Jun 11, 12:15 AMAug 13, 4:59 AM

10.28%chance

5725913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29479

3521

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

35.93%chance

26652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3748

3194

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

27.35%chance

192070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3582

2278

What 2+ word phrases will appear unbroken in a front-page NYT headline before 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Feb 28, 8:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14635229

Will One Of The Top 5 American Newspapers Use The Word "Transbian" By August 2024?

Aug 10, 7:13 PMAug 2, 3:59 AM

32.88%chance

431832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

748

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

11.4%chance

181414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

941

Will Sam Altman have raised at least 1 trillion dollars for a new project, by the end of 2024?

Feb 9, 7:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.05%chance

423611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1376

940

Will Elon Musk have a mental health episode by 2025 affecting his responsibilities with X, Tesla, or Space X?

Oct 31, 12:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.52%chance

201651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2253

830

After the election, will leading newspapers report claims that misinformation generated by AI changed the election?

Jan 5, 11:14 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

71%chance

3144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

68

[Metaculus] Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?

Mar 24, 7:35 PMAug 1, 5:00 PM

89.11%chance

8461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

461

146

Which multistrategy hedge fund (pod shop) will blow up by 2027 year end?

Oct 9, 12:53 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

490

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