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Prediction markets for MO
Prediction markets for MO
Will at least $1M in XTX Markets AI-MO "Progress Prize(s)" be awarded by end of the 65th IMO in July 2024?
Nov 28, 1:17 PM
Jul 22, 4:59 AM
33%
chance
39
4012
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2130
1511
[Kanojo mo Kanojo] Will Rika be dating Naoya by the end of the manga?
Feb 22, 2:39 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
71%
chance
2
48
Option
Votes
NO
YES
118
72
Will ""Rationalist Discourse" Is Like "Physicist Mo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Feb 13, 6:52 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
28.33%
chance
3
32
Option
Votes
NO
YES
119
70
Rust Belt States: How many will vote Dem in the 2024 Presidential Election? (IL, IN, KY, MI, MO, NY, OH, PA, WI, WV)
Dec 7, 2:55 PM
Nov 6, 6:59 AM
18
3042
Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
Nov 27, 5:31 PM
Jan 5, 4:59 AM
54.55%
chance
5
68
Option
Votes
NO
YES
133
126
Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
Nov 27, 5:30 PM
Jan 5, 4:59 AM
31.36%
chance
6
126
Option
Votes
YES
NO
208
110
Will I make USA(J)MO 2025?
Mar 5, 11:57 PM
Mar 13, 3:59 AM
17
2061
Battle of the Mo's: Will Montana be closer than Missouri in the 2024 POTUS election?
Jul 24, 7:05 AM
Dec 1, 5:59 AM
55.68%
chance
5
46
Option
Votes
NO
YES
141
119
What 3-6 mo projects one should do to get a ML Engineer job
Mar 20, 9:09 AM
0
0
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Feb 20, 10:47 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
32.24%
chance
2933
4547696
Option
Votes
YES
NO
12516
9589
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PM
Feb 1, 7:59 AM
43.89%
chance
714
302173
Option
Votes
NO
YES
22056
17095
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PM
Jan 1, 2:59 AM
43.26%
chance
1016
397794
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4966
3790
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