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Magnolia News
Top stories
Numerous Lottery Winners Emerge Across US and Canada, Including $5 Million Canada Day Win
Authors
13
3 days
Texas
Politics
Culture
Prediction markets for Magnolia
Prediction markets for Magnolia
Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?
Jan 2, 4:25 PM
Feb 9, 4:59 AM
9
1083
Will LOY-001 establish efficacy?
Dec 12, 5:18 PM
Dec 20, 7:59 AM
16.71%
chance
23
779
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1959
1895
What percentage of 2024 will be left when OpenAI releases GPT-5?
Jan 2, 5:42 AM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
26.29%
chance
17
366
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1022
984
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?
Mar 7, 1:06 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
27.76%
chance
26
1196
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1047
960
Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?
Mar 7, 1:08 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
21.69%
chance
11
268
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1166
923
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?
Mar 7, 1:09 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
57.65%
chance
3
21
Option
Votes
NO
YES
181
142
Will LOY-001 establish safety?
Dec 12, 5:19 PM
Dec 20, 7:59 AM
80.23%
chance
9
177
Option
Votes
NO
YES
228
115
Will the next UK general election be held in 2024?
Jan 1, 11:14 AM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
97.84%
chance
26
3296
Option
Votes
NO
YES
3355
864
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?
Mar 7, 1:07 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
50.02%
chance
10
407
Option
Votes
NO
YES
301
197
Will a >100 karma LW post claim "How to Catch a Liar" suffers from similar problems to CCS?
Jan 15, 6:00 PM
Jan 23, 7:59 AM
31%
chance
5
144
Option
Votes
YES
NO
155
111
Articles
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7
4 months
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