International Border News

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

6.85%chance

846140

OptionVotes

YES

1823

1536

Will Israel commit war crimes by cutting off food/water, electricity, and fuel to the Gaza Strip?

Oct 9, 12:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

77.41%chance

15023285

OptionVotes

YES

2091

1193

Will US Congress pass a bill in 2024 letting foreign governments tax US firms' digital-services profits?

Dec 1, 10:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.23%chance

3310201

OptionVotes

YES

3317

838

Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2043

Sep 15, 11:31 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.9%chance

10426

OptionVotes

YES

1026

979

Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2024?

Oct 17, 12:20 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.69%chance

1009415

OptionVotes

YES

1426

835

Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2032

Sep 15, 11:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

12.48%chance

12417

OptionVotes

YES

1193

939

[ACX 2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

Jan 1, 1:32 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

7.43%chance

746575

OptionVotes

YES

1102

1046

At the end of the Myanmar Civil War, who will control a plurality of the population of Myanmar?

Dec 18, 11:47 PMDec 26, 7:59 AM

7147

Will the International Court of Justice rule in favor of Guyana in their case against Venezuela?

Dec 6, 2:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

92.16%chance

5261

OptionVotes

YES

329

Which European country will be the next to lose territory?

Jan 18, 2:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

9200

Will territory change hands between Georgia (in the Caucasus) and separatists/Russia before Sep 2026

Aug 22, 8:20 AMAug 31, 9:59 PM

28.19%chance

7113

OptionVotes

YES

215

112

[Metaculus] Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

Mar 24, 7:35 PMJan 2, 8:00 AM

16.38%chance

8281

OptionVotes

YES

419

145

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International Border News

Prediction markets for International Border

Prediction markets for International Border

Prediction markets for International Border

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Will Israel commit war crimes by cutting off food/water, electricity, and fuel to the Gaza Strip?

Will US Congress pass a bill in 2024 letting foreign governments tax US firms' digital-services profits?

Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2043

Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2024?

Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2032

[ACX 2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

At the end of the Myanmar Civil War, who will control a plurality of the population of Myanmar?

Will the International Court of Justice rule in favor of Guyana in their case against Venezuela?

Which European country will be the next to lose territory?

Will territory change hands between Georgia (in the Caucasus) and separatists/Russia before Sep 2026

[Metaculus] Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for International Border

Prediction markets for International Border

Prediction markets for International Border

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Will Israel commit war crimes by cutting off food/water, electricity, and fuel to the Gaza Strip?

Will US Congress pass a bill in 2024 letting foreign governments tax US firms' digital-services profits?

Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2043

Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2024?

Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2032

[ACX 2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

At the end of the Myanmar Civil War, who will control a plurality of the population of Myanmar?

Will the International Court of Justice rule in favor of Guyana in their case against Venezuela?