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Hope News
Prediction markets for Hope
Prediction markets for Hope
Smeth Stock [Hopefully Not Permanent]
Nov 11, 11:32 PM
Jan 1, 6:00 AM
27.51%
chance
63
25998
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1435
740
Pain Relief vs Addiction: Will Vertex’s non-opioid (hopefully nonaddictive) Suzetrigine/VX-548 be FDA-approved in 2024?
Feb 3, 8:09 PM
Jan 5, 4:59 AM
57.82%
chance
3
17
Option
Votes
NO
YES
123
99
Will "How to (hopefully ethically) make money off o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Feb 15, 11:08 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
24.33%
chance
1
5
Option
Votes
NO
YES
75
48
Will Hope Hicks accuse Trump of attempting to rape her while she worked in the White House?
May 11, 5:21 AM
Dec 31, 10:13 PM
1.53%
chance
18
3254
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2139
927
Fancysloth Stock [hopefully not permanent]
Nov 16, 3:33 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
77.08%
chance
7
412
Option
Votes
NO
YES
211
87
What 2+ word phrases will appear unbroken in a front-page NYT headline before 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Feb 28, 8:03 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
146
35229
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
290728
By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?
Nov 29, 11:22 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
13
303
What text will Trump tweet next? (weighed Levenshtein distance, Scrabble dictionary and Trump >2 letter words only)
Aug 30, 10:36 AM
Sep 6, 10:36 AM
18
1357
In planecrash, what was the fourth Major Curse placed on Abrogail?
Dec 7, 5:58 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
19
1852
Who will appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?
Mar 25, 10:17 AM
May 7, 11:59 AM
45
1546
WHO will wear 💓PINK💓!? TWICE!? from now until the end of 2024?
Feb 5, 12:12 AM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
14
3325
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