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Prediction markets for His

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.89%chance

4233103292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3249

1021

Will Joe Biden get impeached in his first term?

Jun 15, 7:13 PMOct 2, 3:59 AM

7%chance

1066480855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10949

3865

Will Trump win the US election if he has been convicted of a crime in his January 6th Federal Trial? [10k Subsidy]

Feb 21, 5:55 PMNov 11, 7:59 AM

46.64%chance

12643113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13174

8454

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.11%chance

824914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10381

9538

Will Biden finish his term?

Jun 30, 6:42 AMJan 20, 10:59 AM

93%chance

14059667

OptionVotes

NO

YES

32822

5281

What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include?

May 30, 9:51 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

354112367

Will president Biden “mint the coin” at any point during his administration?

Jan 9, 2:45 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

3.27%chance

227141249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8723

1600

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

4.23%chance

377373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1186

653

Will a posthumous deathbed UFO confession from Jimmy Carter be revealed within a year of his passing?

Aug 2, 3:04 AMAug 4, 3:59 AM

6.29%chance

181011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1687

887

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.65%chance

16762246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6748

3868

Will a Masters ranked user post a video of themselves hitting the griddy before Trump announces his running mate?

Feb 18, 3:48 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

43.69%chance

143642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6390

2461

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

55%chance

588028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

929

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Hisar MP Joins Congress Due to Political Reasons; Haryana CM Resigns
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