Gale News

NASA's Curiosity Rover Reveals Detailed Views of Mars, Including Gale Crater and Rolling Dunes, Clearest Pictures of Venus and Mercury
Authors
5
8 days
Robotics
World
Tech

Will members of the Gale Family collectively receive over $50,000 by being family-style "Man-Influencers" (Manifold Influencers) by 2050?

Dec 30, 7:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5%chance

8373

OptionVotes

YES

268

155

Will there be 10+ market creators in the Gale Family Manifold group that are not related to the Gale Family by end of 2024?

Jan 1, 8:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28%chance

859

OptionVotes

YES

199

123

Who will be the "Father of the House of Commons" after the next election?

May 19, 1:08 PMJul 4, 9:00 PM

103923

Is @galen also @Hannah and/or @Sperbs?

Mar 30, 5:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.79%chance

16920

OptionVotes

YES

1137

909

Will Julia Galef (Rationally Speaking podcast, Center for Applied Rationality) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.53%chance

142848

OptionVotes

YES

1998

936

Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?

Jun 18, 6:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.03%chance

9122247

OptionVotes

YES

11197

9269

Will US Housing Prices Drop by 20%+ by the End of 2030?

Jun 14, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.58%chance

221256

OptionVotes

YES

1752

571

Will an AI be able to create a website via text prompt by end of 2024?

Mar 19, 7:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.41%chance

16345413

OptionVotes

YES

2815

327

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.38%chance

12310781

OptionVotes

YES

2075

1956

Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035?

Oct 29, 10:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.73%chance

988204

OptionVotes

YES

2078

1529

How old will I be when I die?

Mar 18, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.99%chance

24624

OptionVotes

YES

1021

820

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.12%chance

428528

OptionVotes

YES

1110

864

Latest stories

NASA's Curiosity Rover Reveals Detailed Views of Mars, Including Gale Crater and Rolling Dunes, Clearest Pictures of Venus and Mercury
Authors
5
8 days
Robotics
World
Tech

Gale News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Gale

Prediction markets for Gale

Prediction markets for Gale

Will members of the Gale Family collectively receive over $50,000 by being family-style "Man-Influencers" (Manifold Influencers) by 2050?

Will there be 10+ market creators in the Gale Family Manifold group that are not related to the Gale Family by end of 2024?

Who will be the "Father of the House of Commons" after the next election?

Is @galen also @Hannah and/or @Sperbs?

Will Julia Galef (Rationally Speaking podcast, Center for Applied Rationality) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?

Will US Housing Prices Drop by 20%+ by the End of 2030?

Will an AI be able to create a website via text prompt by end of 2024?

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035?

How old will I be when I die?

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Gale

Prediction markets for Gale

Prediction markets for Gale

Will members of the Gale Family collectively receive over $50,000 by being family-style "Man-Influencers" (Manifold Influencers) by 2050?

Will there be 10+ market creators in the Gale Family Manifold group that are not related to the Gale Family by end of 2024?

Who will be the "Father of the House of Commons" after the next election?

Is @galen also @Hannah and/or @Sperbs?

Will Julia Galef (Rationally Speaking podcast, Center for Applied Rationality) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?