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Prediction markets for Free State
Prediction markets for Free State
Will the United States be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028?
Mar 28, 2:45 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
86.14%
chance
8
157
Option
Votes
NO
YES
283
157
Who will be the next vice president of the United States?(Free responses)
Nov 2, 9:50 AM
Jan 20, 10:59 PM
30
5760
United States Presidential Election Winner 2024 (Free Response)
Jan 2, 4:22 AM
Nov 11, 7:59 AM
8
145
Will the United States cease to be "free" before 2030?
Dec 8, 6:41 PM
Apr 1, 6:59 AM
16.15%
chance
5
95
Option
Votes
YES
NO
245
114
What will be true of the first Enhanced Games?
Feb 2, 5:10 PM
Oct 2, 3:59 AM
40
1873
Paired Market: In what way will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?
Aug 5, 5:48 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
9
288
Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2030?
Feb 4, 8:20 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
5
322
Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2025?
Feb 4, 8:17 AM
Jan 1, 1:55 PM
9
588
Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?
May 18, 4:27 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
57.23%
chance
36
22972
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1157
865
Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?
Aug 18, 4:14 PM
Feb 2, 4:59 AM
171
37982
[Metaculus] Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?
Feb 26, 8:56 AM
Aug 12, 10:00 PM
27.4%
chance
24
1350
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1267
863
Who will the Teamsters endorse for president in 2024?
May 27, 3:39 PM
Nov 9, 4:59 AM
34
6709
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2 months
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