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Prediction markets for Equator
Prediction markets for Equator
Will any LLM correctly answer the question "why doesn't the rocket equation apply to airplanes?" before 2026?
Jan 4, 6:49 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
74.93%
chance
18
845
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1148
916
Will there be a Diophantine equation in the IMO 2024 problems?
Jun 30, 8:39 PM
Jul 25, 9:59 PM
37.5%
chance
1
30
Option
Votes
YES
NO
129
77
Solve these equations for a simpler linked multiple choice mechanism
Apr 20, 1:27 AM
0
0
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
290728
Which of the following Millennium Prize Problems will be solved before the end of 2030?
Jan 9, 10:10 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
12
1897
Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?
Dec 10, 4:53 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
6
1661
What should the Trump campaign be doing right now to increase their chances of winning the election?
Mar 6, 5:47 PM
Dec 8, 7:59 AM
37
2187
In what year will Equatorial Guinea move its capital to Ciudad de la Paz?
Feb 1, 1:04 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
1
70
Will La Niña develop in the equatorial pacific before 2024?
Mar 8, 3:54 AM
Jan 16, 4:59 AM
69.66%
chance
2
60
Option
Votes
NO
YES
180
81
Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?
Jun 10, 7:37 PM
Dec 25, 4:59 AM
32.39%
chance
112
48665
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1445
692
Is faster-than-light travel physically possible?
Mar 4, 2:16 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
14.59%
chance
80
5501
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1010
869
In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)
Jul 28, 1:21 PM
Jan 1, 2:08 PM
70.85%
chance
14
624
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1543
892
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#Eclipse2024: Satellite Images Show #SolarEclipse2024 Shadow's Path
Authors
4
3 months
Climate
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