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Prediction markets for Communist China
Prediction markets for Communist China
Will China still be a communist country on the following dates
Apr 14, 10:46 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
14
1122
Which company will create AGI first?
Dec 7, 7:13 PM
Jan 1, 3:59 AM
42
1986
Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
May 6, 4:05 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
32.09%
chance
14
135
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1178
1053
Elon Musk criticizes China or CCP through 2024
Jul 13, 3:40 AM
Dec 31, 4:01 PM
20.03%
chance
47
2368
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1465
819
Elon Musk criticizes China or CCP before 2026.
Oct 12, 5:25 AM
Dec 31, 4:01 PM
39.14%
chance
35
1868
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1350
587
CCP loses control of a province or SAR before 2030
Oct 15, 12:03 AM
Dec 31, 4:01 PM
10.33%
chance
10
601
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1249
925
Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will the KMT abandon the 1992 Consensus?
Jan 14, 4:12 AM
Jan 31, 3:59 PM
42.14%
chance
2
11
Option
Votes
YES
NO
79
63
Who will lead China after Xi Jinping leaves power?
May 3, 2:13 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
6
596
Will a Cold War like situation erupt between the US and China by 2034?
Feb 18, 1:27 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
79.06%
chance
9
211
Option
Votes
NO
YES
300
170
When will the CCP hold the Third Plenum of the 20th Party Congress?
Feb 20, 5:31 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
2
250
Will Xi Jinping be either General Secretary or Chairman when he dies?
Nov 30, 3:20 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
44.91%
chance
5
172
Option
Votes
YES
NO
140
66
Will Xi Jinping stop being the leader of China before China goes to war with Taiwan
Mar 28, 11:01 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
60.03%
chance
5
200
Option
Votes
NO
YES
235
172
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