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Chatbot Arena News
Prediction markets for Chatbot Arena
Prediction markets for Chatbot Arena
Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?
Jun 24, 9:42 PM
Jul 1, 9:59 PM
50.5%
chance
15
970
Option
Votes
NO
YES
10009
9991
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
Dec 13, 5:16 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
365
71141
Which companies will outrank or tie with OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)
Mar 16, 7:56 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
28
2846
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? ( >= week)
Mar 16, 7:54 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
20
2583
Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)
May 31, 8:26 PM
Dec 31, 9:59 PM
56.63%
chance
61
5689
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1143
875
Chatbot Arena - top 3 labs EOY 2024
Nov 22, 4:22 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
31
3080
Will OpenAI be on the top of the Chatbot Arena's LLM Leaderboard until EOY 2024?
Apr 11, 11:06 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
31.13%
chance
25
2975
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1053
801
Will an open model take the 5th spot on chatbot arena before EOY?
Apr 9, 3:53 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
78.52%
chance
13
427
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1195
911
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
Jan 28, 1:05 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
37.88%
chance
34
1036
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1195
814
Will Gemini Ultra be on the chatbot arena leaderboard before the end of 2024?
Feb 15, 5:06 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
80.07%
chance
17
697
Option
Votes
NO
YES
985
980
Will OpenAI and Google models have a 100+ point Elo lead in the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2024?
Jan 20, 6:45 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
17.01%
chance
14
664
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1244
893
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)
Dec 26, 2:27 PM
Dec 30, 10:59 PM
19.13%
chance
54
10444
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1679
736
Articles
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Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus Overtakes OpenAI's GPT-4 in AI Rankings
Authors
24
3 months
AI
Tech
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