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Carrington News
Prediction markets for Carrington
Prediction markets for Carrington
If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?
Jun 3, 12:31 AM
Jun 1, 6:59 AM
74.12%
chance
10
868
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1692
591
If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?
Jun 3, 6:34 PM
Jun 4, 6:59 AM
58.59%
chance
17
834
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1189
841
If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this?
Jun 12, 8:44 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
70%
chance
14
1550
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1528
655
Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?
Feb 29, 12:57 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
31.21%
chance
18
467
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1148
916
Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?
Mar 19, 11:21 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
15.34%
chance
11
495
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1021
976
If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?
Dec 29, 11:02 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
81.84%
chance
10
354
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1018
808
If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, what percent of the US population would still be alive after 6 months?
May 31, 7:31 AM
Jun 1, 6:59 AM
23
5867
How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?
Jun 1, 3:04 AM
Jun 1, 6:59 AM
19
1491
If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would you still be alive in a year?
Jun 3, 12:33 AM
10
0
Is there a strong scientific consensus that I'd be able to resolve a Manifold market after another Carrington Event?
Jun 13, 2:29 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
4
0
Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?
May 25, 10:59 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
50.77%
chance
12
541
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3614
3370
Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?
Oct 26, 11:39 PM
Nov 3, 3:59 AM
45%
chance
23
753
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1043
925
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