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Prediction markets for Benes

🎬Who will win an Oscar before the end of their career? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 10, 7:14 PMMar 31, 3:59 AM

201131

What alternative term for ‘eucatastrophe’ do you prefer?

Dec 1, 5:36 PMNov 9, 7:59 AM

16783

General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040?

Apr 14, 11:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.13%chance

15251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

972

In 100 years, will Effective Altruism be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?

Dec 13, 6:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.65%chance

291271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

832

Will a clinical trial reporting weight-loss benefits of a GLP-1 agonist be published in a major medical journal in 2024?

Jan 2, 5:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.36%chance

11377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

951

Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?

Nov 9, 2:06 AMDec 26, 5:59 AM

75.32%chance

182506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

814

Will AI benefit common knowledge?

Apr 13, 3:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.1%chance

15385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

941

In 100 years, will Cancel Culture be broadly seen as a beneficial movement by our (human) descendants?

Dec 13, 6:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.7%chance

11235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

957

Will "Maybe Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust is ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 27, 10:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will Mason Hartman benefit from Mormonism?

Mar 7, 8:38 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM

88.4%chance

10536

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1220

935

Will NASA confirm the discovery of aliens Benefit 2025?

Aug 22, 7:51 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

10.82%chance

17971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

955

Will Manifold entirely remove monetery (in mana or $) benefits to market creators in 2024?

May 16, 5:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.85%chance

15475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

933

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