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Baseline News
Prediction markets for Baseline
Prediction markets for Baseline
Will at least 3 Manifold bots advertise their performance on manifold-baseline-curated before the end of 2024?
Jun 12, 10:10 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
52.46%
chance
2
150
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1051
952
What will be the human baseline for the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC-AGI)?
Jun 14, 3:40 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
16
2965
By 2050, how many degrees (C°) of global warming will there be relative to the 1851-1900 baseline?
Jul 9, 9:32 PM
Jan 1, 6:00 AM
20
2716
Will Academic Capture Become a Topic of 5X Interest Than Baseline by Year End 2033?
May 24, 11:17 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
37.9%
chance
4
100
Option
Votes
YES
NO
173
87
New Zealand's annual temperature anomaly (against a 1960-90 climate baseline) will not be below +1°C before 2030
Nov 1, 10:05 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 AM
52.3%
chance
2
15
Option
Votes
NO
YES
75
65
Will average global temperatures rise to 2.0 Celsius above pre-industrial baseline within 10 years?
Jan 9, 4:17 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
16.92%
chance
8
333
Option
Votes
YES
NO
339
93
If X happens by EOY 2024, will Netanyahu be replaced as prime minister by EOY 2025?
Apr 30, 6:16 PM
Dec 31, 9:59 PM
3
156
Will @firstuserhere coauthor a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication before end of 2024? (10,000 Mana subsidy)
Sep 4, 1:34 AM
Dec 31, 7:59 AM
26.76%
chance
100
260532
Option
Votes
YES
NO
18787
6433
Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:38 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
34.29%
chance
11
1709
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4632
4000
Will any LLM released by EOY 2025 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?
Sep 20, 3:16 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
45.88%
chance
42
3237
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1827
1226
Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?
Oct 31, 6:40 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
19%
chance
138
86702
Option
Votes
NO
YES
4371
3035
Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?
Sep 27, 2:00 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
19.2%
chance
100
21004
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2157
2152
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Child Dies After Falling Into Lake at Lakeview at Superstition Springs in Mesa
Authors
5
16 days
Arizona
Obituary
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Authors
5
2 months
Arizona
Politics
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