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Prediction markets for Any Time Fitness

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26232

3281

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

31.37%chance

5510299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11492

10773

Will there be a Manifold bot that makes profitable bets on random 1-month markets by December 2024? (Ṁ3,000 subsidy!)

Jan 2, 3:23 AMDec 2, 5:59 AM

61.2%chance

21512668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5239

4210

Will I manage to squat 3 plates this year?

Jan 18, 8:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.12%chance

4733590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1555

1483

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

48.74%chance

162332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1632

839

Will the 11th generation iPad still only support the first-gen Apple Pencil?

Oct 17, 12:27 AMNov 1, 3:59 AM

32.22%chance

10515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

982

Will the next North Korean nuclear weapon test be on a sunny morning?

Nov 18, 12:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

949

Will Tassilo Think Singular Learning Theory Isn’t Useful for Alignment by the End of 2024?

Aug 15, 8:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54%chance

12886

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

863

Will I either go to the gym or do an equivalent workout at least once a week in 2024? ($500M sub)

Dec 22, 12:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.78%chance

241372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

908

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

62%chance

14233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

961

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

958

Could Fermat have had a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem?

Jun 21, 5:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

7.81%chance

171866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2429

762

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