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AGO News
Prediction markets for AGO
Prediction markets for AGO
Will the paper "Evidence for the earliest structural use of wood at least 476,000 years ago" be retracted before 2025?
Sep 30, 11:29 AM
Jan 2, 12:59 PM
3.82%
chance
24
1463
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2270
872
Will average world temperatures exceed average temperatures of the Eemian interglacial 110k years ago, by 2070?
Aug 14, 8:09 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
45.01%
chance
2
15
Option
Votes
YES
NO
93
87
Will we find out that Mark Zuckerberg died years ago and has actually been a series of deepfakes ever since?
Jul 6, 7:03 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
2.63%
chance
16
3428
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1795
932
What's a fringe view today that wasn't one less than 10 years ago, or vice versa?
Apr 6, 2:29 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
3
55
Make a script to check how long ago it has been since last new unique trader
Jul 23, 1:05 AM
Jul 23, 9:59 PM
0
0
Accurate information is more or less accessible than 50 years ago?
Apr 13, 6:13 PM
55
0
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
289835
What is the hardest line in fiction, according to Manifold?
Apr 10, 6:46 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
24
3794
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
Feb 24, 7:07 PM
Aug 1, 3:59 AM
242
250050
What will happen during the 2024 Presidential debate? (Add your answer)
Jan 12, 7:52 PM
Dec 1, 4:59 AM
105
32585
ManiTube Algorithm Reversal: what will be true of the next video YouTube recommends?
May 15, 4:30 PM
Feb 9, 5:24 AM
2
152
Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025
Jul 2, 7:40 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
32.98%
chance
20
684
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1154
903
Articles
Latest stories
Trudeau, Meloni Cancel AGO Visit in Toronto Amid Pro-Hamas Protest Concerns
Authors
21
4 months
Israel
Canada
Crime
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