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Prediction markets for 50 St

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.23%chance

3160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10134

9876

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

50.07%chance

116103449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

927

Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

Nov 29, 5:36 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

48.04%chance

235597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

918

Will Trump say all 50 states before the election?

May 26, 7:17 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

27.9%chance

484648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1608

622

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Achieve Ballot Access in All 50 States for the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Dec 16, 4:29 PMNov 5, 4:59 AM

78.24%chance

5013528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1863

232

Will there still be exactly 50 US states by 2030?

Apr 3, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.29%chance

642425

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1676

1077

Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?

Jun 21, 3:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.02%chance

402585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

980

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

78.03%chance

24915

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

973

Will the United States of America be composed of exactly 50 states by 2030?

Nov 21, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.2%chance

341775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

952

By the end of 2028, will more than 50% of US trans youth live in states where best-practice medical care is banned?

Jun 4, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32%chance

11333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

986

Will I reach a 100 day streak on Manifold? (Currently at 50)

Jul 2, 3:50 PMAug 23, 3:59 AM

62.39%chance

10416

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1288

776

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

Dec 16, 1:20 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

58.9%chance

14369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

828

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