Market Brief
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French authorities will begin intercepting migrant boats in shallow waters and near the French coast starting next month, following pressure from the UK government. This change comes amid a sharp rise in Channel crossings, with nearly 15,000 people arriving in the UK so far in 2025—a 42% increase from last year and a 95% rise from 2023. On a single day, 1,195 migrants crossed in 19 boats, the highest daily total recorded. France is expected to demand more financial support from Britain to deploy additional officers, drones, and the Compagnie de Marche, a special policing unit. Negotiations are underway for a new deal, with France likely to request a sum similar to or greater than the previous £480 million agreement, which is due to expire in 2027. Since 2015, Britain has paid France £800 million to curb small-boat crossings. President Macron is preparing to present the new strategy during his state visit to the UK in July. French authorities have previously been restricted from intervening offshore except for rescues, but new rules will allow them to intercept boats in shallow waters and along inland canals. The Compagnie de Marche, inspired by policing during the Paris Olympics, is designed to address increased violence on French beaches. In recent incidents, French police have been injured while attempting to stop boats, and so far this year, less than 40% of boats have been stopped. The planned changes have drawn criticism from NGOs, who warn that pushing interceptions further into the water could endanger lives. French police have also raised safety concerns, and legal challenges from advocacy groups are anticipated. As part of the agreement, France is expected to build a long-promised detention centre. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has called for swifter French intervention, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing increasing pressure from opposition parties as immigration remains a prominent issue in the UK.
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100
29
28
26
22
21
19
19
16
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
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10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
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6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
0
OptionProbability
41
13
12
11
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
31
29
17
12
3
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
29
27
18
14
9
3
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
34
34
28
28
28
28
28
8
OptionProbability
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
8