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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 10 July comfortably defeated a no-confidence motion in the European Parliament, preserving both her post and the mandate of the 27-member College of Commissioners. The censure bid, lodged by Romanian lawmaker Gheorghe Piperea and endorsed by hard-right parties, accused von der Leyen of withholding text messages she exchanged with Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla while negotiating multibillion-euro Covid-19 vaccine contracts, a controversy widely dubbed “Pfizergate.” Lawmakers voted 360-175 against the motion, with 18 abstentions; 553 of the chamber’s 719 members participated, well below the two-thirds majority required to oust the Commission. The tally, though decisive, was smaller than the 401 votes that confirmed von der Leyen’s second term in 2024, underscoring eroding but still dominant support from the centrist alliance of Christian Democrats, Socialists, Liberals and most Greens. The challenge followed a June ruling by the EU General Court ordering the Commission to give a credible account of why the disputed SMS messages cannot be produced. During Monday’s debate, von der Leyen defended the vaccine purchases as jointly approved by all member states and dismissed the allegations as extremist “conspiracies,” while vowing greater transparency in future dealings with Parliament. Although Thursday’s outcome spares the Commission from a forced collective resignation—the first such threat since 2014—it exposes widening fractures in Brussels politics. Socialist, Liberal and Green groups signalled they will demand concessions in upcoming budget and defence-fund talks, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and other critics seized on the vote to call for von der Leyen’s departure. The episode highlights rising parliamentary volatility: 166 lawmakers skipped the ballot, and in several countries—including France, Hungary and Slovakia—support for the censure exceeded backing for the Commission. Analysts say the reduced margin leaves von der Leyen with less political capital as she navigates the bloc’s next seven-year budget, Ukraine aid and an ambitious industrial-policy agenda.
OptionProbability
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97
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81
76
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55
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47
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3
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
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0
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OptionProbability
83
6
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
62
31
19
16
16
14
14
14
13
13
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
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4
3
3
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3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
OptionProbability
100
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55
50
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50
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
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0
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0
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0
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0
OptionVotes
2022
215
OptionProbability
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100
97
92
82
55
38
18
9
OptionProbability
74
9
4
3
3
2
2
2
OptionVotes
279
48
OptionVotes
102
98
OptionProbability
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
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6
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
OptionProbability
65
64
63
34
34
17
OptionProbability
45
12
8
8
8
8
7
4