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Prediction markets for Strong

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Mar 24, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.41%chance

13227373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2284

859

Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?

Sep 14, 5:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.31%chance

9124264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2034

1605

Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?

May 24, 1:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.48%chance

13817937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2624

1815

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55%chance

8512836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

1081

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

45.89%chance

8612132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

921

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.12%chance

428528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

864

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Dec 29, 5:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

44.84%chance

475978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11683

8307

Is the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis true?

Feb 13, 5:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

17701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

989

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.75%chance

11423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

975

Will Sam Altman be CEO of Open AI when Strong AGI is achieved by any organization?

May 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.08%chance

16235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

By 2030, will I have strong regrets about having created some market about an aspect of my personal life?

Jun 11, 6:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.04%chance

1087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

972

Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?

Jul 19, 7:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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