Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

The US leaves the World Health Organization

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

"The New Norm" ends

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

New James Bond actor is presented

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

A new supreme court justice appointed

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

US national bitcoin reserve created

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Second Muslim ban

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Government shutdown

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Vances have another kid

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

USA experiences a recession.

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

trump gets hospitalized

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Joe Biden dies

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Approval < 35%

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

A major war in Asia occurs

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

The department of education gets desolved

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Trump visits Africa

New national park created

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Approval < 25%

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

Record level unemployment

Another pandemic

Trump announces he is tired of winning

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump and Obama shake hands

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Trump says a racial slur

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

55 or more Republican senate seats

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

10% fewer government agencies

JD Vance elected President

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Tesla

Trump dies

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Trump runs for a third term

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Starship lands on Mars

Constitutional Amendment

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

BTC falls below $38,000

John Bolton indicted

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Dow rises above 65,000

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Repeal obamacare

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

SpaceX is nationalized

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

US Invasion of any North/South American country

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump extends his term past 4 years

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump and Melania divorce

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

"covfefe" posted again

Trump is seen shirtless

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Cannabis is federally legalized

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Trump gets shot

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

New US national anthem

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.

Arson

Murder

Genocide

2008 bank bailouts

two financial crimes

Sexual assault

Rape

Election fraud

financial crimes veiled as altruism

ballot harvesting

Financial crimes done specifically by someone in power

Racism against Asian people

Similar size financial crime committed by professional like lawyer or accountant who should know better but may have more at stake with risk of being struck off

Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care about you

Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight

financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent

stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent alcoholic

Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open borders

Sacrificing a child to R'hllor

Committing a moderately big financial crime (>$1 million)

Committing a really big financial crime (>$10 billion)

Hiring an illegal immigrant as your personal full-time sex slave

Lobbying congress to ban your competitors

buying a lot of drinks for a girl to get her very drunk so she'll hook up with you

Protecting sex-offending priests/pastors by moving them to different parishes

Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by stealing catalytic converters off people's cars

Introducing leaded gasoline to the market (in 1924)

Rigging a piano to explode when a certain key is hit and leaving a piece of sheet music on it that requires that note to be played

Stealing a SpaceX Starship or Boeing Starliner

Space Piracy: commandeering ISS, enslaving the crew, plundering it for equipment and using it to attack other spacecraft

Taxing Asian immigrants to pay “slavery reparations’ to Ethiopian immigrants

Passing the Jones act to ban senator jones’ competitors

Setting Bigfoot on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of cryptozoologists.

marketing sugary processed foods to people despite knowing it will kill millions of them

Giving away free samples of meth at a school

Running for reelection as POTUS and refusing to step aside after showing signs of significant cognitive decline, resulting in an 80% probability that a convicted felon will be elected in your place.

Encouraging 10 people to commit a financial crime

Committing war crime.

Intensive pig farming

Giving away free samples of meth at a big tech company

Giving away free samples of meth at tech startups

Consolidating dictatorial power (e.g. suspending elections, controlling courts, etc.) while maintaining a popular mandate (i.e. significant majority of the country supports you and your actions in accurate, unpressured polls)

Firebombing a major city

Genocide committed by moving foodstuffs out of an area suffering severe famine.

Restricting the rights and privileges of the majority population to consolidate the political and economic power

Farming octopuses for food

Whatever is going on at Boeing

Setting a cryptozoologist on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of bigfoots.

Destroying a major cloud datacenter facility, with irrecoverable destruction of live user data but no direct deaths

Giving a (hypothetical) IQ-boosting treatment only to the most corrupt, vicious, and malicious people you can find

Doing physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

Threatening physical violence towards a random person's child as a collections agent

Forcing kindergartners to huff jenkem for an entire school day.

Threatening physical violence towards a random person's sibling as a collections agent

Conducting evidence-free civil asset forfeiture

Fighting a sea house with a financial crime and going to McDonald’s and giving a really bad yelp review and suing for a financial crime when you are beating up the sea horse

Octopi farming us for food

Embedding a predatory metaphysical outlook into AI to try to align it with right wing capitalist interests, leading to aeons of s risks being actualized throughout the light cone.

Unintentionally causing a bug that wastes 1 million hours of human time

Transporting 53 polar bears, 14 white tigers, and 2.3 million fire ants to the Antarctic and setting them loose in a penguin colony for a pay per view special dubbed "Polar Pandemonium: Ant-artic Special"

Spending the gains from your financial crime on breeding malaria mosquitoes, giving free samples of meth to poor teenagers, and electing bad politicians

Using a time machine to go back in time and brutally murder someone minutes before they would've died anyways

Aligning superhuman AI with capitalism; see https://manifold.markets/KarlK/how-friendly-is-capitalism-does-cap

Wearing a magic shirt that has a 5% chance of making each individual who sees it commit a financial crime as you traverse a major metropolitan city (New York, London, Tokyo, etc)

Falsifying evidence that an afterlife exists and profiting from the publication of this information

Enslaving Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter

Octopuses farming people who correct those who say ‘octopi’ for food

Enslaving octopuses to farm dolphins for food

Enslaving journalists to farm octopuses for food

Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime while knowing they’re innocent

Crashing the Titantic, leading to it sinking

Free ice cream, at taxpayer expense, but only for gingers

Committing a Financial Crime with Shoes On The Bed

Embezzling money from a charity opposed to farming octopuses

Creating Hell, making it possible that humans suffer infinitely for the actions of their finite life

Ressurecting the Rocky Mountain Locust (Melanoplus spretus)

creating misaligned AI that tiles the universe with octopus farms

Forcing an octopus to commit sepekku

forcing an octopus to commit a financial crime

Murdering 5,000 people by feeding them to all animals of the sea, including aquaman, mermaids, octopuses, and sea horses.

Octopus sex trafficking.

Filming a documentary where you get an octopus to trust you, luring it out into the open, and then don't help when it gets attacked by sharks.

Filming a documentary where you invite your girlfriend to an Alaskan camp surrounded by bears and then messing with those bears.

Introducing polar bears to Antarctica and then renaming them “bipolar bears.”

Appointing one random drug dealer with no legal experience to the Supreme Court of the United States

Appointing Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court

Hanging on to a Supreme Court seat so Trump can appoint your replacement rather than retiring and keeping a liberal seat

Selling pies made out of orphan meat.

Condemning two hundred men to a slow death at sea because their coworker shot your favorite bird.

Enslaving a group of people for hundreds of years, terrorizing them for another hundred, then telling them you are tired of hearing them complain about it.

Selling orphans fed only pie meat

Feeding a child only nachos until they are 18 to create an adult who is 100% nachos

Slaughtering bears without a permit because the US Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms

Replacing all the samples at a sperm bank with your own.

Delivering angry skunks to the offices of rival investors to incapacitate them just before quarterly earnings reports.

Committing two financial crimes and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

Quackery - Traveling town to town selling snake oil remedies in a horse drawn carriage while wearing a top hat

Dueling - settling a dispute in the 21st century America with pistols at dawn

Go to an orphanage and have starving orphans battle over a hamburger with guns and swords while committing a financial crime

Twelve counts of murder in the first degree, fourteen counts of armed theft of Federation property, twenty two counts of piracy in high space, eighteen counts of fraud, thirty seven counts of rape... and one moving violation.

Causing people to go without essential items like water and fuel during emergencies by means of anti-price-gouging laws

Judging policies by their stated intent, not by their effect

Purposefully inciting a sea-bear attack

Enslaving a particularly dim-witted alien race so poor humans don't have to spend their lives asteroid mining.

Stealing a SpaceX Starship

Getting nuns pregnant by dressing them as altar boys.

Carjacking an old lady

Committing a financial crime and spending the proceeds on a plane ticket to Texas so you can go carjack Elon Musk, and then doing so

Forcing jockeys to run around a track for the entertainment of a race of hyperintelligent horses

Carjacking a hyperintelligent horse

Stealing the Declaration of Independence

Operating a child beauty pageant

Andrew Tate

Intentionally causing a bug that wastes 80,000 hours of human time

Putting motherfucking snakes on a motherfucking plane to kill one specific passenger

Having trains so bad and expensive that venture capital reinvents them

A regulatory environment that results in really bad trains

Trying to run a modern 21st century society on a hierarchical 18th century constitution

Artie Chokes Two for $1: Hiring a man named Artie to choke two people for a dollar to generate a headline falsely promising low-cost produce.

The first thing you do after sex is to resume the autopsy whilst telling yourself that one error in judgment doesn’t make you a bad vet.

Invent a system of taxation where the government won’t tell citizens what they owe, but instead will make them do a super complicated math problem and then send them to jail if they do it incorrectly.

Putting a pair of immortal adult children in an everlasting garden, then punishing them for the one thing you forbade, yet knew they must eventually do, given the nature of eternity.

Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to bootstrap itself to AGI by testing on your clones according to a mixture of Popperian and Bayesian formulas

Inventing a system of taxation that encourages bad land use and a housing crisis by taxing at 0% the unimproved value of land

Committing a violent crime that does not result in any injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries

Committing a violent crime that results in one person's death

Committing a violent crime that results in ten people's deaths

Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a serious injury to another person

Handing out counterfeit money to homeless beggars, in the hope that they'll get arrested for spending it.

Snatching household pets to fatten coyotes to feed to your pet tiger.

Stealing oxygen in an international moon base during an acute shortage, while deflecting suspicion toward the Belgian astronaut who nobody likes.

Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries solely to yourself

Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries solely to yourself

Committing a violent crime that results in your own death and no other injuries

Not committing a financial crime because you have commitment issues, but then sneaking around on the side and doing other financial crimes.

Sending a busload of orphans to a convent of cannibalistic nuns, who deal crack to middle school kids.

A law enforcement agency publicly declaring a specific individual to be “a person of interest,” thereby ruining their life even though the individual turns out to be innocent.

Being responsible for more than 50 percent of the cases of necrophilia in the funeral industry during any fiscal year.

As President, using a sharpie on an official weather forecast to extend the predicted area of danger, thereby needlessly frightening people who are not in danger.

Committing a financial crime while being the mayor of NYC

Attacking the lower classes: first with bombs, and rockets destroying their homes, and then when they run helpless into the streets, mowing them down with machine guns. And then of course releasing the vultures.

Cannibalism in the current British Navy.

Turning your girlfriend into a worm to win an argument

One hundred moving violations

Denying health insurance claims from impoverished family for flimsy reasons

Attempting or successfully couping a Democratically elected leader for personal gain

Touching minors/ being a pedophile

Deliberately targeting civilians and civilian objects during armed conflicts

Conducting widespread or systematic rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war

Invading the UK, making it a US territory, and naming it East Long Island.

Stealing Nicholas Cage

Gender "reparative therapy" of minors

Signing Deshaun Watson (who previously had to settle millions of dollars in sexual assault cases) to a 5 year, 230 Million fully guaranteed contract

Building a gambling app using money originating from a financial crime

Going back in time and smothering baby Hitler, but also, via butterfly effect, undoing everyone born later (assume single timeline, no multiverse)

Moving hundreds of thousands of children to a foreign country and forcibly "reeducating" them

The genocide in Gaza

Russia's genocide in Ukraine

Slavery

Grooming kids

9/11

Stranding two astronauts in space

Being the leader of a crime syndicate

Quackery: traveling town to town selling snake-oil remedies while carrying a duck

Sending dick pics to a student enrolled in your MOOC

De-extinction for your delectation: Bringing an extinct species back just to make it extinct again by serving it to gourmet diners as the highlight of an expensive meal.

Voting for the NSDAP in the November 1932 German federal election

Forced mass uploading of biological consciousness to sidestep x risk

Voting against a public inquiry on grooming gangs in the UK

Attempting and failing to commit two financial crimes

Knowing of two imminent financial crimes, being able to stop them with negligible effort and no risk to yourself, and not doing so

Disturbing the space-time continuum

Murdering someone that habitually commits financial crimes

A 20-year old having consensual sex with a 15-year-old

Sexual harassment

Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the entire proceeds to a legitimate and worthy charity (assume the donations are not clawed back)

Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two times, or not at all

Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by a series of petty shoplifts

Purchasing 50,000 pounds of beef

Weaponizing autism

Forcing a home owner to quarter soldiers, even in a time of war

Claiming to "Blind Shove" 200 big blinds pre-flop when secretly you looked and you had pocket Aces

Killing the United Healthcare CEO

Raising and selling 50,000 lbs of beef

Sheltering enemies of the state

Kicking a FG from the opponents 1 yard line on 4th down in a 0-0 game in the first quarter

Yelling racial slurs in public

Having a really good proof but not writing it anywhere because the margin is too small

Having a podcast

Jaywalking

Pelting a moose with stale garlic knots out of season.

Cheating on spouse

Driving while intoxicated (alcohol and/or drugs)

Playing music (or other audio) on your phone speaker on public transport

Income taxes

Copyright infringement

Romeo and Juliet relationships

Replying all to an email when you should've just replied

Welfare fraud

Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs

Grave robbery

Saying the N-word every day as a white person

Discrimination based on race

Discrimination based on sexual orientation

Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor

Having sex in public while high on fentanyl

Racism against black people

Racism against white people

Sleep Token (Band)

offering drugs to a minor

not seeding your torrents

Drinking and driving at a NASCAR event

Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at history's greatest tragedies

Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for victims of a mass tragedy

Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which later leads to the insolvency administrator paying back the injured parties (including interest).

Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a frontier model, with the goal of speeding up the progress towards human-level AGI.

Stealing from the poor and giving to the rich

Hiring only women because the NYT said you could pay them less for the same work

hiring three illegal immigrants to work on your sugarcane plantation

opening a factory in India that pays workers $4/day

twincest

drawing japanese tentacle porn featuring minors

Hiring the one from the more successful demographic out of two identical resumes, because of regression to the mean / biased college admissions

working as a prostitute

hiring a prostitute

hiring a prostitute, long term

Inventing Monero

Running a bank that invests demand deposits in junk bonds and tech stocks

Opening clinics for free abortions and IUDs, only in the ghetto

Giving away free samples of meth at a Dolly Parton concert

The most offensive Halloween costume ever

frisking two drug dealers and one innocent guy who was just loitering on a busy street corner saying "Hey do you need anything" to every stranger who walked past

Doing blackface

Keeping a dozen chimpanzees for entertainment purposes

Prosecuting a political opponent based on true charges that would normally not be pursued

the Asiana flight 214 prank

Giving free samples of meth to Joe Biden before the next debate

Cloning yourself

Threatening physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

making mifeprestone available OTC

making adderall available OTC

Killing yourself

Cloning someone else

Accidentally shooting and killing someone on a movie set

Asking GPT5 to maximize paperclips

Giving free baby formula to new mothers until their natural milk supply dries up

Kicking a donkey owned by a ninja in the butt.

Creating shit-options in an extremely serious and scientific market

Creating a prediction market website where markets are mostly about the platform itself

Staging the world's first ass ass assasin assasination by hiring a New Jersey hit man to whack a ninja hired to shoot an arrow at the backside of a donkey.

Betting yes on Biden being be the nominee at 7x leverage with play money, then defaulting

Calling octopuses "octopi"

Going excessively meta on an object-level topic

Illegally registering octopuses to vote

Registering illegals to vote for octopuses

Creating a targeted advertising campaign for free abortions and IUDs to people who are statistically likely to engage in financial crime

The school system failing to teach people that the real correct plural is octopodes

"James Bond-burgering" someone's sister

Wrongfully accusing someone of the same financial crime

Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime because you think they did it

Feeding an elderly man nothing but McDonald’s morning noon and night for the rest of his life.

Conducting gain-of-function research

Creating an unsolvable meme featuring James Bond and a hamburger so that people argue about it online for a decade

Publishing a step by step guide for how to commit a financial crime for free on the internet, but never promoting it or encouraging readers to follow through

Hosting and operating a website dedicated to the illegal sharing of copyrighted content

Adding an option to a market right before it closes

Writing a "goto" statement when programming

Advertising instant-runoff voting as "ranked choice" to prevent promotion of better ranked choice methods

Publishing a book, titled, "Cure Menopause with Ultraprocessed Foods"

Using crack cocaine to train the world's first chimp TSA agent.

Selling dope disguised as a nun.

Creating Heaven, allowing humans to prosper infinitely for the actions of their finite life

Inventing a new recipe that uses shrimp that causes 10 million new pounds of shrimp to be consumed annually

Using a conservative politician's LGBT+ identity as blackmail to make them support liberal policies

Voting for Benito Mussolini… in 2024

Arguing that grizzlies should be US citizens because they already have the right to bear arms.

Interrupting cows.

No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns into a worm

Putting infinite monkeys in front of infinite Bloomberg Terminals hoping that one of them randomly commits a financial crime

No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns you into a worm

One moving violation.

Purchasing one whole chicken

Committing a financial crime and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

Cattle rustling

Horse thievery

Tarring and feathering someone who commits a financial crime

Sumptuary law violations

Homeopathy

Price Gouging

Using napster.com to download Metallica's "I Disappear" demo track for free

Failing to commit a financial crime

Stealing a car

Stealing from Elon Musk

Committing a financial crime against X (company)

Stampeding cattle through the Vatican.

Carjacking Elon Musk

An old lady carjacking Elon Musk

Hacking into YouPorn to steal their IP to set up a clone dedicated to hard core user generated agriculture content: YouCorn

Gaslighting aliens into believing the human race is more technologically advanced than it is by beaming fake content about humanity to them

Carjacking a dumb octopus

A financial crime committed by an old lady

Forcing an octopus to carjack Elon Musk

stealing Elon Musk's car from solar orbit

Raping an AI avatar in VR

Introducing artificial intelligence to DMT space.

Planned Parrothood: offering birth control to talking birds

Plant Parenthood: when the seed goes in and the baby turns out to be a sunflower

Stealing the Declaration of Independence in order to find a vast revolutionary-war-era treasure trove

Using venture capital to reinvent trains, but worse

Bad bagels

Enslaving Slavey Steve, a man who has given enthusiastic consent to being enslaved for literally any purpose and then using his labor to clean up the environment

Still getting notifications for this market

Deciding to break up with your girlfriend, but thinking it will go easier if she thinks it’s her idea, so you suggest some degrading sexual activities but she surprises you by agreeing. Afterwards, you break up with her.

Laughing because a nun with a javelin through her head gets stuck trying to use a revolving door.

scaring the shit out of a magpie

Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to build a map of all quale and use it to create a computationally conscious race of dragons in a virtual universe

Committing sewerslide

Forcing a major sports league to change all its team names and mascots to either STDs or famous serial killers.

Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a minor injury to another person

Stealing the Declaration of Independence but only to use the kick ass treasure map on the back and then returning

Arby’s

Passing a law to make the United States an Oregon donor; in the event of the US’s demise, another country gets Oregon.

Creating a food made from grinding up every part of a pig (except the squeal), and then making a contest to see who can eat the most of it.

Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation and donating the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation, keeping 50% of the proceeds, and donating 50% of the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

Forcing Elon Musk to commit a financial crime against an octopus and using the proceeds to pay a jacked jack-of-all-trades named Jack to jack off while carjacking a jackass that was driving factory-farmed ASIs to the slaughterhouse

Committing a Financial Crime Only When God Exists

Turning a worm into your girlfriend to win an argument

Causing 8 billion people to get dust specks in their eyes, irritating them just a little, for a fraction of a second, barely enough to make them notice before they blink and wipe it away

Causing 1 person to experience the pain of their entire body being stung by bullet ants, but lasting only a tenth of a second, and they have their memory of it wiped immediately afterwards

Founding Christianity

You, the reader

One hundred counts of littering

Purchasing 500 pounds of beef

Consensually cannibalizing someone who was losing that body part regardless

BTE Ban evading

Purchasing 5,000 pounds of beef

Producing a remake of the television series 'Manimal' starring Nicholas Cage.

Transing children

Redirecting fire department resources from fighting fires to fighting inequity

Taking a salary equal to the amount of the financial crime, while working in a government job of negative societal value?

Sexual intercourse with 1057 men in a 12 hour period

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

Sweden joins NATO

Donald Trump OR Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

bitcoin reaches $80k usd on google

Bitcoin reaches $70k USD on google

the end of 2024

Jimmy Carter passes away or is murdered

Bitcoin reaches 100k usd

Ides of March 2025

Chapter 1200 comes out and he still has not found the one piece

Death Stranding 2 out

Sailing skill releases for Runescape (Old School)

the end of 2025

Pluton revealed or used or production started

Imu Face Reveal

Gta 6 comes out

chat gpt 5 releases

manifold reaches 2000 engaged users

kaidou is seen again in the manga

Officially supported Netflix app for Apple vision pro

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

King Charles no longer king of UK

arlong is seen again in the manga

Taylor Swift married

OnePieceExplained reaches 50k subscribers https://www.youtube.com/@onepieceexplained

Noam chomsky passes away

Kingdom Hearts 4 out

UFC 350 takes place

Datura Lacroye releases 3 original albums and 3 cover albums

Juice wrld's the party never ends will drop

ukraine joins NATO

nuclear detonation or test happens (jan 2024 onward)

dragon ball super manga ends

Manifold user charts on the Billboard 200

Sanji finds all blue

ukraine joins EU

manifold reaches 3000 engaged users

human sets foot on moon again

one of the straw hats dies

Pigs Fly

donald trump spends a day in prison

ChatGPT 6 released

China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

hunter biden serves a day in jail

Destiny retires from streaming

6th bitcoin halving

Windows 12 end of life date

someone reaches 1B in mana profit on Manifold

Buggy the clown dies

Singularity happens

YES

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Autolyse 20 minutes

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Add a pinch of sugar

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Watch the video

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

put butter into it

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Add 2g? of baking soda

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Play classical music while baking

Sacrifice a lamb

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Bake in rectangular tin

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

The culture war has been intentionally amplified by the wealthy to distract from class conflict

The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015)

Someone working for a US intelligence agency was a regular user of Manifold before this option was made

The US has spies working in the North Korean government

TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government

The Republican party has been making the illegal immigrant problem worse during 2020-2024 to blame it on Joe Biden during election season

The Premier League delayed punishing Manchester City for breaking FFP regulations to protect its own self-interests

"The Agency" on Manifold was known to the whole Manifold staff team before it started

The Chinese government planned their Wuhan lockdowns to protect their own country from Covid-19 but spread it to other countries

The idea of aliens is used by the US to distract people from secret military projects

John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) was assassinated

Mattress Firm is a money laundering front

The earth and/or universe was created by a God, deity, supernatural being, or some other sentient/conscious entity in the beginning

Creationism (second try): The earth and/or universe was INTENTIONALLY created and designed by an INDIVIDUAL god or deity at the VERY BEGINNING of its existence

The US created Covid-19 in a lab in China

Putin was threatened by a member of his cabinet to invade Ukraine

The CIA systematically edits Wikipedia articles to present the US in a better light

Creationism (third try): Genesis 1 prima facie is an accurate description of the earth and/or universe's origins

The 2024 Donald Trump assassination attempt was a hoax or setup

In the Tucker & Carlson interview, the dubbed voice of Putin in english is not actually saying what Putin is saying, but instead something completely different

Vladimir Putin died in 2014 and was secretly replaced by a body double

COVID-19 vaccines permanently change one's DNA or genome

COVID-19 vaccine is fatal or lethal in the long term

Phantom Time Hypothesis: A substantial portion of the Middle Ages was made up and never happened

There is a firmament, dome, or ceiling above the earth

Viruses/viral particles don't actually exist

Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 election so that former first lady Michelle Obama could take his place as the Democratic Party's nominee.

US government found intelligent extraterrestrials

secret cabal of pedophiles in high places

Trump is a Russian agent

The Boeing whistleblower didn't kill himself

Emperor Nero didn't kill himself

Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself

Bill or Hillary Clinton had someone whacked

JFK wasn't killed by LHO acting alone and on his own initiative.

massive mail ballot fraud in 2020

Chemtrails

John McAfee didn't kill himself

Harold Holt didn't drown or was whacked

Capote ghostwrote To Kill a Mockingbird

Jimmy Hoffa was whacked

The moon landing was faked

Someone gets 42

Alexander Wang top 10

China first place

Alexander Wang first on team USA (tied for first counts)

UK top 10

USA second place

USA exactly 5 golds

Singapore top 10

Canada top 10

AI beats someone on Team USA (AI has 4.5 hour per day time limit)

Problem 2 or 5 is geo

Israel top 10

USA 6 golds

Any contestant is disqualified

Hannah Fox top 10

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.

Other

The Dark One

Hagunemnon

Slaad

Zodar

Glabrezu

Uvuudaum

Athasian Nightmare Beast

Will not be revealed

Note that this market creator resolved a prior market incorrectly and is untrustworthy. https://manifold.markets/DAL59/will-the-worth-the-candle-art-in-rp