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Prediction markets for Means
Will "SPINNING PLATES OF MEANING ON A NEEDLE MADE OF LIGHT!" receive 10,000 listens in 2025?
Mar 27, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37%chance
5416256
OptionVotes
1305
766
Will the geometric mean of the bids on this question exceed 11?
May 20, 12:18 AMJul 4, 4:00 PM
58.85%chance
186517
OptionVotes
1196
836
Gwern reveals the true meaning of Evangelion by December 31, 2025
Nov 22, 4:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM
64.98%chance
193430
OptionVotes
1362
734
Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?
Feb 20, 6:13 AMFeb 28, 5:00 AM
90.33%chance
463285
OptionVotes
2396
728
Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?
Jul 11, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
95.06%chance
122564
OptionVotes
3203
742
Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?
Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.14%chance
291516
OptionVotes
1761
662
Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?
Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM
39.6%chance
19799
OptionVotes
1192
506
Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?
Jan 11, 11:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.35%chance
20637
OptionVotes
1020
912
Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
46.24%chance
13393
OptionVotes
1096
871
In 2030, will people assume you mean CR7 if you say "Ronaldo"?
Aug 5, 9:21 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
83.49%chance
6122
OptionVotes
189
78
If AI doesn't destroy the world, will it be primarily because it lacked the means, motive, or opportunity?
Sep 9, 3:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
5106
OptionProbability
56
36
7
OptionVotes
100
100