Market Brief
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A new INSCOP Research barometer shows the nationalist-conservative Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) commanding 40.5–41 percent of voting intentions, its highest level on record and three percentage points above the previous month. The governing National Liberal Party (PNL) follows at about 17 percent, while the Social Democratic Party (PSD) slips to roughly 14 percent, only fractionally ahead of the Save Romania Union (USR) on 13 percent. The survey, conducted 20–26 June among 1,150 adults, has a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points. The numbers mark a dramatic reversal from last December’s parliamentary election, when PSD led the vote. Combined support for the four governing parties now trails AUR’s share, underscoring mounting public unease less than two months after Nicuşor Dan’s presidential victory and weeks into protracted coalition negotiations. Discontent intensified after Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan on 7 July pushed a fiscal austerity package through parliament by assuming cabinet responsibility, bypassing a full vote. The measures include a higher value-added tax, new pension levies and other steps aimed at narrowing the budget deficit. Two days later AUR lodged a motion of no-confidence, accusing the cabinet of worsening living costs. PSD said it would not back the motion but is weighing abstention, even as senior lawmakers criticised the tax hikes. With the governing parties still holding a numerical majority, the censure effort is unlikely to pass, yet AUR’s polling surge signals growing pressure on the coalition ahead of the 2028 general election.
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