Elon Musk

Bill Gates

Jeff Bezos

Mr. Beast

Barack Obama

Other

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Robert Caro

Kamala Harris

Gwern Branwen

JD Vance

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Jensen Huang

Peter Thiel

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Sarah Paine

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Narendra Modi

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Buffett

Taylor Swift

Joe Biden

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Satoshi Nakomoto

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

roon

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

Geoffrey Hinton

pope Francis

Scott Alexander

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Terence Tao

Ilya Sutskever

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Tim Cook

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

The US leaves the World Health Organization

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

"The New Norm" ends

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

New James Bond actor is presented

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A new supreme court justice appointed

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

US national bitcoin reserve created

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Government shutdown

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

USA experiences a recession.

Vances have another kid

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

trump gets hospitalized

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Joe Biden dies

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Approval < 35%

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

A major war in Asia occurs

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Trump and Obama shake hands

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

New national park created

Record level unemployment

Another pandemic

Trump announces he is tired of winning

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump visits Africa

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Second Muslim ban

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

55 or more Republican senate seats

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

The department of education gets desolved

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Tesla

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Trump runs for a third term

JD Vance elected President

Trump dies

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

Constitutional Amendment

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

10% fewer government agencies

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Starship lands on Mars

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Approval < 25%

Trump gets covid (again)

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

SpaceX is nationalized

BTC falls below $38,000

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Dow rises above 65,000

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Repeal obamacare

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

US Invasion of any North/South American country

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

John Bolton indicted

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Trump is assassinated

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump and Melania divorce

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Trump gets shot

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

New US national anthem

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

NO

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz.

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

Other

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

I've been a good bing 😊

We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

Robot Love!!

AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

AIs never develop coherent goals

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

God exists and stops the AGI

Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

Someone solves agent foundations

Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

Something else

Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

Orthogonality Thesis is false.

Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs

It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"

By default, the generated videos will be watermarked

A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space

A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month

OpenAI will be sued over the model

It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)

A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements

It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation

A second major version of the model has been released

A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show

A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet

It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes

costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50

It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website

It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names

Video will include sound

A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views

It will be jailbroken to make a porn video

It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription

it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country

A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views

At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

Sora will be part of GPT model

It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)

Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored

There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives

It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform

It will be the SOTA for text to video

It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo

It has been renamed

It will be free to use

A third major version of the model has been released

A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month

The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian

It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)

The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather

OpenAI will release the number of model parameters

Full description of model architecture will be public

Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization

The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes

A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market

OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model

Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization

A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora

None of these will happen by EOY 2028

TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company

TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days

The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)

[option already ruled out] The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)

YES

YES

Tell someone to commit suicide on Manifold (resolves YES)

Have sex with a cisgender person

Get a job

Be hospitalized

Go 14 days without making a bet on Manifold

Willfully do a recreational drug other than caffeine, alcohol, marijuana, or nicotine

Accidentally break my Nintendo Switch 2 (must be my fault; does not include manufacturing defects, inevitable battery degradation, etc)

Fail to vote in an American election that I'm eligible to vote in

Leave the USA

Get a STD (and be aware of it)

Willfully eat an animal product (excluding human and excluding lab-grown meat)

Vote for a Republican in a general election (excluding nonpartisan and unopposed elections)

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.