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Prediction markets for Direct

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.66%chance

34794388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3145

1560

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

76.08%chance

10543796

OptionVotes

NO

YES

20416

3955

Will Russia conduct a military action that directly triggers NATO's Article 5 by January 21, 2025?

Nov 9, 6:11 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2.47%chance

258394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5759

76

Will WW3 directly cause over 1B civilian casualties?

Jan 3, 8:44 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

26.01%chance

86380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9588

101

If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030

Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

71.66%chance

894645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2266

2074

Will Donald Trump directly endorse some form of AI regulation in a public statement between now and inauguration day?

Feb 18, 10:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.44%chance

342876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2593

160

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.36%chance

22432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10483

9539

Destiny v Dan on Ray Guns: Will a directed Energy weapon be discovered within the next year?

Apr 4, 4:24 PMApr 4, 1:29 PM

13.86%chance

302250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2220

1206

Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

14.95%chance

182176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2913

914

In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?

Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.21%chance

361621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

815

The CCP itself will directly produce and raise children

Aug 20, 8:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.75%chance

211025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

984

Will someone be able to play Super Smash Bros directly with the Neuralink as a controller by the end of 2034?

Mar 21, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.32%chance

17892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

534

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