The Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined for the 19th consecutive month, indicating a potential recession in 2024 according to The Conference Board. Despite a fall in weekly jobless claims, the labor market is still slowing, with 'unadjusted' jobless claims reaching 4-month highs. However, continuing applications for US jobless benefits fell for the first time in two months. The National Activity Index also unexpectedly tumbled in October, suggesting a slowdown in economic growth. Furthermore, US durable goods orders plunged by 5.4% in October, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020, primarily due to weakness in the transportation equipment sector. This has led to a softening in business spending on equipment. In the UK, manufacturing orders have fallen to their weakest level since January 2021, as indicated by a CBI Industrial Trends Orders figure of -35.
US durable goods orders fall on weakness in transportation equipment sector https://t.co/vDlkTlJOqD https://t.co/bA9UC7nr6W
🇬🇧 United Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends Orders $GBP Actual: -35 Previous: -26
US weekly jobless claims fall; business spending on equipment softening https://t.co/Sqr4JoJVYC https://t.co/Llcx3E2LUU
UK manufacturing orders fall to weakest since Jan 2021: CBI https://t.co/p2FX08971r https://t.co/SW2jwpssUZ
Just one week but the YoY growth in non-seasonally-adjusted continuing jobless claims might be hooking down, would be encouraging if it’s sustained: https://t.co/jaYWEMVuXt
Continuing applications for US jobless benefits fell for the first time in two months https://t.co/FecUN2axT4
⚠️ US DURABLE GOODS ORDERS FALL ON WEAKNESS IN TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT SECTOR Full Story → https://t.co/ivYMsgN4ZI Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell more than expected in October as orders for motor vehicles and parts dropped amid strikes by the United… https://t.co/YrprqKEfT1 https://t.co/tkvmJNhSII
'Unadjusted' Jobless Claims Surged To 4-Month Highs, Led By California https://t.co/Ft2gKFD04x
⚠️ US WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL; LABOR MARKET STILL SLOWING Full Story → https://t.co/CMhZjHAjZC The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, but that likely does not change the view that the labor market is slowing… https://t.co/ZAafWjUKGY https://t.co/8dIbZmsZZI
Continuing applications for US jobless benefits fell for the first time in two months https://t.co/QRtTqLqTQ7
US Durable Goods Orders Plunge In October As War-Spending Sinks https://t.co/xixSgXYs37
WASHINGTON (AP) - The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week, a sign that U.S. job market remains resilient despite higher interest rates.
Initial Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Tumbled Last Week https://t.co/Ft2gKFD04x
⚠️BREAKING: *U.S. OCTOBER DURABLE GOODS ORDERS PLUNGE -5.4%; EST. -3.1%; PREV. +4.0% *BIGGEST MONTHLY DROP SINCE APRIL 2020 🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/40Veeh6hIc
🔴 US DURABLE GOODS OCTOBER REPORT. https://t.co/cJZIGJtQWG
The CFNAI points to a slowdown in economic growth in October, with declines in all 4 categories dropping the index to its lowest in 7 months. @ChicagoFed https://t.co/zS6IGhCTEq
🔴 UK CBI ORDERS ACTUAL -35 (FORECAST -23, PREVIOUS -26) $MACRO
🇬🇧 United Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Nov) $GBP Actual: -35 🔴 Expected: -25 Previous: -26
"We estimate that new orders for durable goods fell 4.0% in October while related shipments declined 1.0%." - JPMorgan https://t.co/Eza9ce3myw
"We forecast that initial jobless claims declined 6,000 to 225,000 during the week ending November 18." - JPMorgan https://t.co/ootDU9dm0o
National Activity Index Unexpectedly Tumbled In October, Chicago Fed Warns https://t.co/4FKj7CG59t
What is interesting is that while equities continue to rally, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for the 19th straight month in Oct, and continues to point towards a recession. https://t.co/jn3kd6xGcl
The Leading Economic Index declined for the 19th month in a row, the longest down streak since 2007-08. The Conference Board is now forecasting a "very short recession" for the US in 2024, pushed back from prior calls for a recession to start in Q4, Q3, Q2, and Q1 of this year. https://t.co/x76oB1FGpE