In January, the US housing market experienced significant downturns, with housing starts plummeting by 14.8%, marking the largest drop since April 2020, while permits surprisingly rose. This decline was reflected in both single-family housing starts and new home construction, exacerbating the challenges of low supply and affordability in the market. Additionally, the commercial real estate sector is facing increasing difficulties, highlighted by a 'debt bomb' of $929 billion due this year, which poses a risk of insolvency for hundreds of banks if loan default rates spike. The Federal Reserve's policy shift has also depressed homebuyer and homeseller activity, leading to a drop in monthly new and active listing growth to the lowest levels since last summer, according to Redfin. These developments have raised concerns among fund managers about systemic risks and the potential for a credit event in the real estate markets. Notably, Starwood is close to losing a 257k office building in El Segundo after defaulting on an $85 million loan.
Retail sales slipped more than expected in January, raising questions of if America's resilient consumer is losing steam. Retail sales fell 0.8% from the month prior versus an expected a 0.2% decrease in spending. It's the largest month-over-month decline since March 2023. https://t.co/9YTWAfO3j9
Sat down with @davidlin_TV. Intense economic and market discussion with a deep dive on #Stocks #Bubbles, #Inflation, #Crypto and more. These charts I show should wake us all up to what is coming. https://t.co/LzQEtuzCPi
CRE > Systemic Risk Concerns Grow Among Money Managers as Real Estate Woes Cause Turmoil Fears of a systemic credit event are growing among fund managers as alarms sound in property markets around the world. Hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates and alleviate… https://t.co/XhCiF7h1yQ
HOUSING MARKET GETS MORE BAD NEWS (Newsweek) New home construction 'collapsed' in January, adding to the struggles in the housing market. It is grappling with low supply that has pushed up prices and made buying a home unaffordable for a lot of Americans who are facing elevated… https://t.co/cEmFQzdnKj
Barry Sternlicht has been ringing the alarm bell due to the troubles arising in commercial real estate It's becoming clearer why... Starwood is close to losing a 257k office building in El Segundo Starwood (and Artisan) recently defaulted on an $85 million loan tied to the… https://t.co/9eOjGY3519
"Systemic Risk Concerns Grow Among Money Managers as Real Estate Woes Cause Turmoil" https://t.co/CiNIcuKswI https://t.co/UudZlZXd6R
Systemic Risk Concerns Grow Among Money Managers as Real Estate Woes Cause Turmoil @business #CMBS https://t.co/xwLuLjCepT
Fears of a systemic credit event are growing among fund managers as alarms sound in property markets around the world https://t.co/VGNIFRZrlz
Landlords are selling up because of higher interest rates and stricter regulation, leaving tenants with less choice and higher rents, says Rachel Mortimer ⬇️ https://t.co/C6jhzGgTtY
Dive into this when you get a chance Morgan is always incredibly insightful on markets and risk and human behavior. Market Mayhem: @morganhousel on Navigating Financial Storms | Speak Up w... https://t.co/ZQJP4ZMxqu via @YouTube
The assumption that inflation was headed down to 2% in a tranquil, healthy, real economy has certainly been called into question by the data. Watch my full interview with @DavidWestin @BloombergTV Wall Street Week. https://t.co/mo0hP6zz2R
Will empty offices cause the next banking crisis? Commercial real estate 'debt bomb' of $929 billion comes due this year with HUNDREDS of banks facing insolvency runs if default rates on the loans spike https://t.co/ZZAQuVcR1b https://t.co/dv9qex3dhU
Housing starts plunged by 14.8% MoM in January, the largest drop since April 2020, while building permits fell unexpectedly. https://t.co/BBD4n4L3TE
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE IS IN BIG TROUBLE — AND THE PROBLEMS MAY HAVE MAJOR FINANCIAL FALLOUT (MSN) Problems for the US commercial real estate sector seem to be getting worse — and spreading. Steeper interest payments, tighter bank lending, and declining asset values have… https://t.co/3v1p5wlnbO
🗞️ January numbers have rolled in and US new vehicle sales declined to a 15M annual rate, lower than the previous month's 15.8M. https://t.co/LBTWRSbcte https://t.co/spp3zhZQw7
The housing boom replaced social democracy. Now we have neither. Property owners need a reality check, writes Aaron Bastani. But it's easier to understand their anger over soaring mortgage rates when you consider what the housing boom replaced. https://t.co/dtyy6R9dkw
The Federal Reserve's policy shift depressed homebuyer and homeseller activity in January, according to Redfin. Monthly new and active listing growth dropped to the lowest levels since last summer. https://t.co/iTLD2z1vgm
Regulators are right to be concerned about commercial real estate. The chronic problem in banking is a failure to pay attention to the market value of assets. Watch my interview tonight at 6pm ET with @DavidWestin @BloombergTV Wall Street Week. https://t.co/nP33BukeM2
US single-family housing starts fall in January; permits rise https://t.co/a0KPlSwvt3 https://t.co/qS5FC7YKEQ
I highly recommend following @mg10012. Of all the people I've heard on Spaces, he's the most knowledgeable on the markets and very level-headed. Much respect. #FF
There’s a meaningful chance — maybe it’s 15% — that the next move is going to be upwards in rates, not downwards. The @federalreserve is going to have to be very careful. Watch my interview w @DavidWestin tonight 6pm ET @BloombergTV Wall Street Week. https://t.co/QIPp9Rc68j…
US housing starts fall 14.8% in January, the worst monthly drop since April 2020: "We always [knew] that this year was going to be bumpy so I'm not surprised to see [it] reflected in starts and permits," National Association of Home Builders CEO Jim Tobin says. https://t.co/Al1ftwqnSo