Consumer spending in the US ended Q3 with a strong pace, setting a firm foundation for Q4. However, the rate of spending is expected to slow to just above 2% following the impressive 4% growth in Q3. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates a +2.3% growth for Q4, contradicting predictions of a US recession. Goldman Sachs also raised its Q4 GDP tracking estimate to +1.6%, reflecting the removal of a government shutdown from their forecast.
Many gave Atlanta Fed GDPNow a lot of sht over the past few months. Still a huge 4.9% real print, and with CPI and core PCE cycling high 3%, even the current “weak” 2.3% 4Q reading suggests nominal GDP near 6% …crazy. I have headline CPI ~4.5% in a few mths vs 3.7% now fwiw…
"We are removing any shutdown assumption from our forecast. Coupled with other changes to our GDP forecast caused by data released this morning, we have boosted our Q4 GDP growth estimate to +1.6% and lowered our 2024Q1 estimate to +1.7%." - Goldman
Friday's #Economic data roundup📊✍️: #GDP Edition US GDP QoQ: 8.5% US Real GDP QoQ: 4.9% US GDP: 27.62T US Real GDP: 22.49T https://t.co/kjB5oJWhOh
The first Q4 2023 GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is looking for 2.3% growth. https://t.co/rv3o4Ebem4
The Atlanta Fed just put out its first estimate for Q4 GDP The Atlanta Fed's Q4 GDPNow forecast is currently at +2.3% https://t.co/VxFauwlrZy
GDPNow 4Q starts at 2.3%. Nice. GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta https://t.co/TKhXJwy6VR
Initial ante from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow = +2.3% for Q4 2023. So much for the "US recession in the back half of 2023" I've been hearing about for going on almost 2 years now. https://t.co/6tyoB68vvN
Goldman: "We are launching our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at +1.6% (qoq ar), above our standing forecast of +0.7% and reflecting the removal of a government shutdown from our base case"
GOLDMAN: “We are launching our Q4 #GDP tracking estimate at +1.6% (qoq ar), above our standing forecast of +0.7% and reflecting the removal of a government shutdown from our case. Our upgrade also incorporates strong consumer momentum ..” https://t.co/ckRtAXWCmn
Consumer spending ended Q3 at a sturdy pace as but more importantly it indicates a firm hand-off to consumer spending for Q4, although we estimate the rate of spending slows to a bit above 2% (annualized) following the blowout 4% advance in Q3.